tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-150285932011-12-31T16:15:35.509-08:00Lofty thoughts from a pig's trough.Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10571100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-68443300569492531582009-05-09T19:44:00.000-07:002009-05-09T19:49:48.208-07:00

In lieu of real content, I offer you my twitter feed.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-20855578510386901542009-03-24T09:18:00.000-07:002009-03-24T10:54:49.957-07:00

The Republican Party is in a shameful, embarrassing shambles. The leadership is divided between extremist Southerners in Congress, an ineffectual, hapless party leader, and celebrity fire-breathers like Rush Limbaugh, odious in their personal hypocrisy to most of the Americans the GOP would in other times be trying to woo.It is an interesting paradox that, during times of political collapse, the

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-49719332811458573742009-01-24T11:28:00.000-08:002009-03-24T20:57:05.831-07:00

"I, Barack Hussein Obama, do solemnly swear ... that I will execute the office of president to the United States faithfully."--Chief Justice John Roberts, mis-administering the Presidential oath on TuesdayIn the moments following this verbal fumble, righties in offices as grand as the Fox News studios and as humble as home offices began with a narrative they couldn't possibly have coordinated:

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-18839157193115385792009-01-19T09:08:00.001-08:002009-01-20T09:10:29.060-08:00

"I just want to make sure we don't start confining ourselves to, you know, politburo members because they happen to be a member of some, you know, psychopathic left-wing organization designed to overthrow the government."--Brad Schlozman, second in command in the Civil Rights Division, in a report released last week. The report found that 2/3s of Schlozman's hires were "clearly conservative" and

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-58835046039644081502009-01-19T09:08:00.000-08:002009-01-20T09:10:03.281-08:00

"I just want to make sure we don't start confining ourselves to, you know, politburo members because they happen to be a member of some, you know, psychopathic left-wing organization designed to overthrow the government."--Brad Schlozman, second in command in the Civil Rights Division, in a report released last week. The report found that 2/3s of Schlozman's hires were "clearly conservative" and

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-33602400948459760372009-01-17T09:07:00.000-08:002009-01-20T09:08:29.939-08:00

In the third of four posts assessing the presidency of George Bush, we turn now to domestic policy. Compared to the economy and foreign policy, Bush's domestic policies can get lost in the shuffle. Yet here, too, he was an activist president who left a mixed legacy. Bush came into office with big plans to forge a new kind of politics based on "compassionate conservatism." This was always a

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-61350903505899691022009-01-16T09:06:00.000-08:002009-01-20T09:07:36.394-08:00

"It's sad to say, but we really went nowhere for almost ten years, after you extract the boost provided by the housing and mortgage boom. It's almost a lost economic decade."--Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody'sOn Monday I began a series of posts on the Bush years, starting with a look at the administration's handling of foreign policy. The Iraq war will be one of a small number of major

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-4318532543532579652009-01-15T09:04:00.000-08:002009-01-20T09:06:35.527-08:00

In just over a week, the presidency of George W. Bush will creak, finally, to a stop. The joke I keep hearing is that he's forgotten but not gone, and that's not far from the truth--turn on the news or pick up a paper, and nobody's talking Bush. When a guy has made such a hash of things, I guess we all would rather look forward than backward (we're Americans, after all). But for a week or so,

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-85589881647950800042009-01-07T08:47:00.000-08:002009-01-07T08:47:00.939-08:00

Wherein I sift through the archives for posts that shed light on the presidency of one George W. Bush. Let us begin.Tuesday, July 01, 2003 There has been some serious run on this. "God told me to strike at al Qaida and I struck them, and then he instructed me to strike at Saddam, which I did, and now I am determined to solve the problem in the Middle East. If you help me I will act, and

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-19734242675872849422009-01-06T12:54:00.000-08:002009-01-06T14:16:48.578-08:00

Yesterday, six men you never heard of were invited to have an audience with Grover Norquist and debate among themselves the question: who should lead the RNC? Each man advocated on his own behalf.(One might ask the question why not one of the men failed to get up, walk to the podium and punch Grover in the nose. Is there anyone as useless to this party now as Norquist? He was arguably the most

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-81873252541682201222009-01-04T16:29:00.000-08:002009-01-06T14:12:44.631-08:00

We move along with our chronicle of the corruption, deceit, and incompetence of the Bush regime as blogged by me throughout the past six years. You might notice that I skipped yesterday--that's because the month of May 2003 wasn't particularly rich in blogging. So we move to June.Mostly my early posts were about the Iraq war--not surprisingly. But on June 19, I discussed Bush's nested

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-52544194049086739402009-01-04T08:22:00.000-08:002009-01-04T08:22:00.102-08:00

We move along with our chronicle of the corruption, deceit, and incompetence of the Bush regime as blogged by me throughout the past six years. This edition features blogging in the month of April 2003, when we were grappling with the war. In a series of early posts, I examined whether the war was just, and concluded with the following post. It is especially relevant as Barack Obama heads to

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-67948962043259523352009-01-03T08:00:00.000-08:002009-01-03T08:00:00.383-08:00

We move along with our chronicle of the corruption, deceit, and incompetence of the Bush regime as blogged by me throughout the past six years. This edition is from March 2003--the year the US invaded Iraq. Yesterday I went for a concise post of the month; March 2003 calls for the comprehensive look. This first post includes speculation about why we invaded. Of all the things we've learned

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-50990969006789192032009-01-02T08:30:00.000-08:002009-01-02T08:30:04.476-08:00

We move along with our chronicle of the corruption, deceit, and incompetence of the Bush regime--which I documented pretty ably for about four of the past six years. Today's edition, February 2003, in the month before the Iraq invasion. I wrote a fair amount that month, but one post really nailed it. Rather than comprehensive, I'll go for concise:Wednesday, February 19, 2003 A

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-28332367921475926332009-01-01T15:53:00.000-08:002009-01-01T16:30:17.896-08:00

As this blog dies a slow but thankfully anonymous death, I thought I'd send it out with a few past blog posts from the past six years of the Bush regime. A retrospective for the most incompetent, ideologically vicious, corrupt, and destructive presidency since at least Warren G. Harding--if not ever.January 2003 marked one of the darker periods in American history, as the Bush White House

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-8099477281042748232008-12-31T23:11:00.000-08:002009-11-29T13:13:09.946-08:00

Testing the Stream.Watch live video from sherabdorje on Justin.tv

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-34737710874915848892008-12-18T13:04:00.000-08:002008-12-18T13:48:49.855-08:00

The only things we have to discuss these days are appointments, so they're getting all the attention. But the emphasis is backward. Obama selected Rick Warren to do the invocation at his inaguration and this has outraged righties more than cabinet picks Tom Vilsack (Agriculture) and Ken Salazar (Interior). What the hell?Let's start with Warren. This pick is a political no-brainer. It costs

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-49000211771062995142008-12-13T10:38:00.000-08:002008-12-13T10:42:34.590-08:00

Sure, get my hopes up.RANDOLPH DROPS 38 AS CLIPS TRIP BLAZERS IN 2 OT PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) - Zach Randolph doesn't harbor any bad feelings toward his former team. He just doesn't want to lose to the Trail Blazers . Randolph scored a season-high 38 points to lead the Los Angeles Clippers to a 120-112 double-overtime victory over the

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-57148303864426051492008-12-09T13:05:00.000-08:002009-12-09T13:11:28.750-08:00

This is the Livestream feed.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-57462016827896210202008-12-02T15:17:00.001-08:002008-12-02T15:29:07.310-08:00

To reword the question slightly: Do Obama's appointments to his cabinet, at best moderate Democrats and at worst Robert Gates, represent the political direction his administration will take?Hypotheses:1. Yes.Explanation: He totally rooked saps like Alworth, who saw his record of liberalism and soaring rhetoric as the return of FDR (or at least Mario Cuomo) and now we must get used to Clinton II.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-32102447088781221092008-11-29T14:11:00.001-08:002008-11-29T14:45:28.402-08:00

For most Americans, India is a grindingly poor, overpopulated nation of brown people who live in slums--except for the stratum who steal US jobs. No country can come into focus when viewed from such a great remove. In the last few days, the country has been been bleeding through an entry wound in Bombay, as terrorists have been holding hostages in the Oberoi and Taj Mahal hotels downtown. I

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-23923556005911351542008-11-29T14:07:00.000-08:002008-11-29T14:11:21.090-08:00

Hog died months ago. To be a living blog, posts must flow like blood through the veins of time, and the posts must have coherence to bring readers back. For two--three?--years, Hog has struggled to meet these low standards of self-sufficiency, and is by all reasonable measures comatose. It won't die, though, because I'll be unable to stop posting altogether. Sorry.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-19165684246753189072008-11-10T14:57:00.000-08:002008-11-10T15:04:51.454-08:00

There are 23 coastal states in America. Sixteen voted Obama. (Include only the lower 48 and you get 15/22.) Include only states with a Pacific or Atlantic Ocean coast (excluding Gulf of Mexico), and you get 15 of 17. It's striking when you look at a map of the electoral vote.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-80541225128948889282008-11-06T19:40:00.000-08:002008-11-06T19:46:09.951-08:00

As I was grading myself on the quiz (I scored it first to reduce the chance that I'd cheat and bend the answers to my own, knowing that there wasn't a McCain's chance in Pennsylvania that I would recall answers given 18 months ago), I discovered this answer to the last question.17. The unexpected development(s) in the next 18 months will be? (open ended)17-Despite my prediction that Hillary

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-27303975800102282682008-11-06T19:00:00.000-08:002008-11-06T19:26:36.615-08:00

On April 26, I asked readers (okay, friends mostly) to try out their prognosticative ability on the 18-Month Quiz. We finally have the answers. Answers in bold. Appeals available in comments.Foreign Policy1. Iran.A) Iranians comply with international pressure, submit to inspections and dismantle their enrichment program; US stands pat.B) Iranians continue to play coy about enrichment,

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-91973417447942823612008-11-05T18:09:00.000-08:002008-11-05T22:03:42.133-08:00

This is from April. Some of the details are wrong, but the overall point was spot-on. And don't give me that financial crisis crap. McCain just wasn't going to win this thing. Obama's margin would have been something in the 285-315 range instead of the landslide. But he was going to win. As I noted in April, the "fundamentals" of the McCain campaign were just too crappy to overcome. My

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-8634833241489662682008-11-05T16:48:00.000-08:002008-11-05T16:55:30.343-08:00

Nine of us gathered at a friend's last night to watch the returns. Here are some pics. This first one shows that lonnngggg period when Obama hadn't snagged a Bush state. Joe regards it intently.Later, Shawn takes over as the sentinal next to the TV.Obama spoke, we listened.In the end, we celebrated the win in the traditional manner--with a terrorist fist jab. Obama!

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-16982964569218776742008-11-04T23:23:00.000-08:002008-11-05T00:10:47.165-08:00

Well.In a historical sense, Barack Obama's win probably falls slightly short of Bill Clinton's win in 1992 (370 electoral votes), but well ahead of Jimmy Carter's in '76 (297 EVs). On the other hand, he is currently leading with 52% of the vote--the first Democrat to do that since Carter, who barely--barely--made it into a clear majority. For a Democrat, it's a solid win, but not an especially

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-35106494592842423072008-11-04T13:13:00.000-08:002008-11-04T13:31:14.763-08:00

Scenes on the ground in Oregon. Taken at noon. First one is from PSU:Next one is the voting "line" in Oregon--auto drop offs.Humming smoothly along...But wait, a voting irregularity! Nope, just a stuck flap. After 31 seconds, the technical glitch was resolved.Finally, a weird long line that mystified me. What are these people waiting in line to do?

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-75492997611995174282008-11-03T20:30:00.000-08:002008-11-03T20:59:46.645-08:00

Where will Obama--or, err, John McCain--end up on the electoral college? A few of the totals in the modern era.271 - George W. Bush (2000)297 - Jimmy Carter (1976)286 - George W. Bush (2004)379 - Bill Clinton (1996)426 - George HW Bush (1988)486 - Lyndon Johnson (1964)520 - Richard Nixon (1972)523 - Franklin Roosevelt (1936)*525 - Ronald Reagan (1984)Roosevelt, asterisked above, actually won a

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-67602925261485824522008-11-03T17:36:00.000-08:002008-11-03T17:46:05.628-08:00

Here's a handy visual of the most recent polls in each of 14 swing states.* It will be interesting to compare these polls with tomorrow's results (click to enlarge).Oh, it's also worth noting that among these, only Pennsylvania and New Hampshire went for Kerry in 2004. ______*I used an average of three polls in each state, none of which was older than 36 hours. In some cases where there were

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-49780034542622226252008-11-03T12:39:00.000-08:002008-11-03T12:54:50.362-08:00

I got some take out Chinese for lunch. This was inside the fortune cookie:"Tomorrow will be lucky and memorable for you."I kid you not.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-46970039619635113532008-11-02T18:28:00.000-08:002008-11-02T18:38:56.060-08:00

I know I should be blogging more, but all I can do is crouch and wait. It's a defensive posture but also one that contains coiled energy, a leap readying itself in my legs. In 2000 and 2004, the focus was on the other guy and what a threat he was to the country. (Warranted fear, as it turned out.) This year, it's on Obama, and what an opportunity he offers. The flavor of defeat this year

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-65490954024738962512008-10-31T17:36:00.000-07:002009-11-12T17:37:58.121-08:00

Bold Xand Number Two

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-75621557956274223382008-10-31T16:29:00.000-07:002009-11-16T16:29:45.839-08:00

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-37047538150853240102008-10-31T14:38:00.000-07:002008-10-31T14:46:11.227-07:00

Not that I understand economics, but I don't like the sound of this:The long-feared capitulation of American consumers has arrived. According to Thursday’s G.D.P. report, real consumer spending fell at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter; real spending on durable goods (stuff like cars and TVs) fell at an annual rate of 14 percent.To appreciate the significance of these numbers,

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-68336889342361511382008-10-31T11:17:00.000-07:002009-10-20T11:18:53.025-07:00

Demonstrating the Flickr slideshow, embedded in a webpage.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-86522067036226019472008-10-30T13:27:00.000-07:002008-10-30T13:43:12.516-07:00

I don't claim that there's any exterior cause for this, but I'm starting to get worried about the election. It's a familiar feeling: about once a week for the first five months of the year I got it as Barack and Hillary battled their way through the primaries. Even when Obama was on his 21-state winning streak, I would still enter election day panicked. So I suppose it's just reflexive.On the

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-64779669900270169842008-10-30T12:56:00.000-07:002008-10-30T12:57:18.550-07:00

Cool.Get the latest news satire and funny videos at 236.com.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-30982122426724205892008-10-26T22:40:00.000-07:002008-10-26T23:22:04.687-07:00

I am about to go to bed. I was just watching the last of "Mad Men" Season One on my computer and of course, rather than immediately turning the damn thing off, I started surfing. Because, you know, quite a lot might have happened this Sunday evening since the last time I checked, at 7:30.Well, nothing has (why have those damned East Coast bloggers given up their post at the early hour of 1 am?)

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-41266975823201386782008-10-25T19:13:00.000-07:002008-10-25T19:27:03.979-07:00

For the final nine days before the election, I've put four poll trends in the right column. The first is the national trend line--that should be obvious enough. The next three are the three states with which Obama can win the election: Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. If Obama wins all the Kerry states, he only needs these three Bush '04 states to flip and he'll have 273 electoral college votes

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-24864675290908754422008-10-24T18:05:00.000-07:002008-10-24T18:58:47.544-07:00

This weekend, the talking heads will be talking about Robert Draper's long article in the NY Times magazine. It's fascinating indeed, almost a post-mortem on McCain's dead-man-walking campaign. In a nutshell, Draper walks through the various phases of the campaign (six by his count), recounting how McCain was constantly re-cast as the hero of some new narrative.(It's probable that one can read

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-41067219011851541852008-10-21T12:40:00.001-07:002008-10-21T12:45:37.179-07:00

One last note. In the last two elections, Republicans were more loyal to their candidate than Dems. Republicans averaged 92% loyalty in those elections, with Dems about five points behind. This year? John McCain is down 7% from Bush (85%) while Obama is up 1%. Observations:1. 88% of 45% of the voting population (Dem registration) is greater than 85% of 35% (Republican registration).2. What

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-540218111925248102008-10-21T11:14:00.000-07:002008-10-21T11:33:41.057-07:00

In addition to the charges that Obama's Muslim, Arab, a terrorist (or friends thereof), and so on is this new one: he's a socialist. What the hell? I spend too much times watching videos of rabid McCain crowds (see here, here, and here for examples), but it has some benefits. I can trace the waves of talking points as they sweep through the right wing echo chamber. (In one of those videos, a

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-27102423379725881412008-10-20T21:33:00.001-07:002008-10-20T21:41:41.967-07:00

From time to time I check out the electoral calculators by way of giving myself a reality check. Here's something to keep in mind when you're thinking about the map. Ohio doesn't matter. Florida doesn't matter. Virginia, NC, Missouri--none of these matter. If Obama wins just three states that Bush won in '04, he wins the election: Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa.In each case, Obama has a lead

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-5792372897024427422008-10-17T09:55:00.000-07:002008-10-17T10:12:25.082-07:00

The following was written to a thread on BlueOregon, but it might well have been written in response to John McCain, when he said this:“Now what does that mean? He wants government to take Joe’s money and give it to somebody else-his hard earned dollars. We are not gonna stand for that. America didn’t become the greatest nation on earth by spreading the wealth."McCain has a legitimate postion.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-67496217018433486152008-10-16T13:36:00.000-07:002008-10-16T13:39:12.855-07:00

To be told you are among the top 100k isn't generally regarded as a great distinction. But in this case, I'm still taking my victory laps. I did see Obama's promise early on. From a fundraising pitch:Jeff --You were one of the first 100,000 people to own a piece of this campaign. You provided the strength needed to build a movement.Back then, few pundits or insiders thought we had a chance.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-59538180948382273682008-10-15T21:57:00.000-07:002008-10-15T21:59:49.581-07:00

This is another example of why Obama's the man. It's the exchange he had with Joe the plumber, wherein a skeptical Joe demands to know why Obama will raise his taxes if his plumbing business makes more than $250,000. Obama's answer: because it's right. He concludes by saying that even if he's lost Joe's vote, he'll work for him.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-42796791132466216902008-10-15T18:03:00.000-07:002008-10-15T19:42:28.378-07:00

I'm going to be a little more methodical in this liveblog. Less moment-by-moment reactions, more general thoughts on larger themes.6:06: They're seated and both look relaxed. This format will likely make both more appealing. McCain is working very hard to look relaxed and human. He's been instructed to look at Obama, and he's trying that. He's not looking into the camera, as Obama does.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-10057466591546866482008-10-15T14:16:00.000-07:002008-10-15T14:27:48.551-07:00

Amid the dozens of new polls every week, it's hard to keep track of the details. I just looked through the results of Pew's new survey, and this finding jumped out. Pew asked voters to rate the most important national problem. For most of the year, the economy has been the leading issue, but have a look at how dramatically it's grown. Voters citing "economy" as most important issue34%:

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-39077991384628763922008-10-14T16:48:00.001-07:002008-10-14T16:49:40.123-07:00

Good:Bad:The choice is clear.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-39010828571070552062008-10-14T09:46:00.001-07:002008-10-14T09:53:51.821-07:00

I just returned from a morning of filming a segment for a local talk show called "Outlook Portland." It was about what you'd expect from a balding mumbler of low-middling attractiveness. Fortunately, it airs on an off-network (the CW) at--not joking--Sundays at 6am. So no harm done. It will apparently air the Sunday before the election. I will have the key Youtube segments when they're

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-71924143724483163752008-10-10T21:41:00.000-07:002008-10-10T21:44:52.015-07:00

Well, we saw this coming.Alaska Inquiry Concludes Palin Abused PowersGov. Sarah Palin abused the powers of her office by pressuring subordinates to try to get her former brother-in-law, a state trooper, fired, an investigation by the Alaska Legislature has concluded. Go ahead and raise your hands, those of you who didn't see this coming.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-1389665423738330552008-10-07T21:00:00.000-07:002008-10-07T21:27:39.412-07:00

For those of you who are of sound mental health and less obsessive character, I assume "The Corner" means nothing. It is a proto-blog of the National Review, which is sort of the print equivalent of FOX News, if instead of being run by old, white, screechy GOP stooges, it were run by smart-ass, coddled, screechy white GOP stooges. It's not really a blog so much as a stream-of-consciousness

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-8556904382764239622008-10-07T17:54:00.000-07:002008-10-08T11:32:41.530-07:00

I'm going to try to be a little more sedate this time around. We'll see how that works.6pm: One minute to go.6:05: McCain looks Obama in the eye when he shakes his hand--someone coached him. Shocker! First question's about the economy. Obama's solution: WPA. McCain is talking around the question sort of like Palin. This is not what they envisioned, the Palinizing of McCain.6:10: McCain: my

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-70132912412646300962008-10-06T13:28:00.000-07:002008-10-06T14:16:23.921-07:00

Andrew Sullivan posts a letter Obama wrote to Bernanke and Paulson on March 22, 2007. It highlights his depth of understanding of the economy--or at least of his advisors' understanding. Considering how callow and mercurial his primary and general election foes have been, it is really impressive.Dear Chairman Bernanke and Secretary Paulson, There is grave concern in low-income communities

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-39129240202899869762008-10-03T12:37:00.001-07:002008-10-03T13:58:56.121-07:00

Here's a thought experiment. Imagine that Barack Obama scooped McCain and asked Sarah Palin to be his veep. Would she have gone for it?The point isn't to come to an answer, but to highlight the fundamental vacuity at the center of the Palin phenomenon. This isn't about politics, it's about celebrity. Last night's debate must surely have featured the worst performance by a candidate in the

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-66761426540709950012008-10-02T15:02:00.000-07:002008-10-02T15:20:38.100-07:00

About two weeks ago, I made a few predictions. Rarely is one so quickly proven wrong/right. Let us revisit an revise.Prediction 9/18Obama will win the election by a comfortable popular vote (+5%), and an even more comfortable electoral college outcome. Current guess (to be revised later): 294-244. This includes a sweep of the Western swing states, Virginia, and Iowa, but neither FL or

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-34105694562552124122008-10-01T10:16:00.000-07:002008-10-01T10:23:28.577-07:00

Hendrik Hertzberg gives some advice to Joe Biden (via the New Yorker's "Campaign Trial" podcast):Biden has a particular problem. He has the social awkwardness with women of a happily-married man. I mean, he's not really practiced at how to relate to a woman he doesn't really know very well. There is a danger he'll make some inappropriate joke or [engage in] a piece of awkward flirtatiousness

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-91136175340922238612008-09-30T20:28:00.001-07:002008-09-30T20:43:48.262-07:00

I'll give CBS credit for milking their exclusive interview with Sarah Palin. What's it been, a week where they've been slowly doling out interviews while the campaign has otherwise kept her behind an iron curtain? In the final installment, Palin comes clean on three issues she actually holds and believes (as opposed to those she lip-synchs)--three which might cause her trouble.1. Abortion. Key

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-70907685843047330722008-09-29T14:54:00.001-07:002008-09-29T15:00:48.106-07:00

People are now looting, stocking up on spam, and heading for the hills on news that the bailout crapped out today (Dow down 777 points in what sounds like a casino number--wheeee!) and I offer the most fine-grained useless detritus for you to consider. It's a blog.Yesterday, on Fox, confronted with the reality that Obama had won the post-debate polls, the beleagered GOP go-to shill Lindsay

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-44090972815129811042008-09-26T20:29:00.000-07:002008-09-26T20:38:51.340-07:00

Both candidates needed to do certain things, and both did. McCain needed to stick to the talking points and not get too irritated or condescending. He needed to avoid a major error in fact. Obama needed to look presidential, speak in short, clear sentences, and not get irritated.So fans of both candidates could be happy -- except that McCain's campaign is currently cratering. He didn't need

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-854256781198065442008-09-26T18:02:00.000-07:002008-09-26T19:33:55.699-07:00

Right on time--Lehrer starts things at 6pm straight up.6:03 - Q about the financial crisis. Obama, looking straight into the camera. Standard response about the plan, the elements he wants. Pivots to a shot at McCain being part of the cause. Trying to irritate McCain right off the bat!McCain, crocodile tears about Kennedy. Pivots to crocodile tears about homeowners. He's looking around the

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-59550908875854255002008-09-26T13:33:00.001-07:002008-09-26T13:53:59.348-07:00

The last two days have been among the most politically remarkable I can recall in my not-so-short life. McCain and Sarah Palin have cratered more spectacularly than the financial companies this week. (Spectacularly?--well, maybe not. Would you believe entertainingly?) McCain claimed to suspend his campaign in what quickly became clear was a political stunt, not an effort to bring bipartisan

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-46789132966484144222008-09-26T13:31:00.000-07:002008-09-26T13:32:35.967-07:00

...does Sarah Palin have a Minnesota accent?

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-53631803276450839672008-09-25T15:02:00.000-07:002008-09-25T15:18:49.115-07:00

McCain must not be much of a chess man. Somehow he didn't see very few moves ahead. I guess he hoped Obama would suspend his own campaign and agree to skip the debate. But failing that, McCain's plan was ... ?He now finds himself in an extremely awkward position. It looks like the bailout, for good or ill (ill, if you want my opinion) is going forward. It looks like there's very little chance

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-30209213629474072562008-09-25T12:47:00.000-07:002008-09-25T13:21:34.324-07:00

I regret to inform my reader that I will be suspending my blogging until the Packers win their next game. With the loss to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday, the nation has been brought to the brink of disaster. We must meet in sports bars as Americans, not Bears or Patriots fans, and we must drink strong ale until this crisis is resolved.Some version of that joke is being told thousands of times across

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-36013021058097435692008-09-24T17:14:00.000-07:002008-09-24T17:21:38.370-07:00

And if all that wasn't enough, Katie Couric interviewed Sarah Palin tonight. It's a painful watch (but of course, I have the vid!). I'd like to highlight two answers to two questions, just because I'm mean and sexist and an obvious coastal elite. Can't help it. (Emphasis, obviously, mine.)COURIC: But polls have shown that Senator Obama has actually gotten a boost as a result of this latest

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-74685823868897063742008-09-24T15:49:00.000-07:002008-09-24T16:49:34.728-07:00

John McCain was dealt two very low cards in this quadrennial edition of political Texas Hold 'em--a seven and a four, say. (Other candidates, like Romney, were the dreaded 2-3 combo of doom.) He just doesn't have a lot of options. Thus was his situation revealed this morning, when he beheld the latest ABC News/WaPo poll numbers: Obama 52, McCain 43.(Sample analysis: " As a point of comparison,

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-19045233572273488672008-09-23T15:49:00.000-07:002008-09-23T15:57:29.052-07:00

Back when Senators were hot to trot on that execrable bankruptcy bill, how many times did they lecture the poor and indigent about personal responsibility? Just a thought.Also:If the Congress passes the bailout of all bailouts and allows the golden parachute clause, Dems will forfeit their advantage within the next two election cycles. I will be among those who wash my hands of them. This is a

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-25143624960124702522008-09-20T16:10:00.000-07:002008-09-20T16:21:08.157-07:00

Later on, I'll run it past the professor. But here's my understanding of the problems that led to the chaos we're seeing on Wall Street. Below, Krugman and Reich say why they're down on the bailout, which is one piece. Underneath the bailout, though, is the fundamental problem which needs to be fixed in the long term. Based on what I've read, these were the problems.No Money in the Bank.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-51465857461562191302008-09-20T15:55:00.000-07:002008-09-20T16:09:47.918-07:00

I don't know nothin' bout economics, but I do know that Paul and Robert do... Krugman and Reich have looked at "the bailout of bailouts" and they're not impressed.ReichIt's not likely to do all that much good because no one knows how much bad debt there is out there. Even if the government bought a lot of it, investors and lenders still couldn't be sure how much remained. After all, big banks

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-32894102572076551682008-09-18T16:25:00.001-07:002008-09-18T16:32:34.811-07:00

I have restrained myself from slagging Sarah Palin too much, but this is irresistable. Riddle me this, reader (and I mean all one of you)--what the hell is she talking about? She's discussing her "plan" for fixing the economy:“Through reform, absolutely. Look at the oversight that has been lack, I believe, here at the 1930s type of regulatory regime overseeing some of these corporations.”I

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-31264773562208259452008-09-18T13:28:00.001-07:002008-09-18T13:52:05.374-07:00

Hot on the heels of my prediction that the post-convention numbers were a bounce, I double down with these:Amorphous preamble: I think the next few weeks will be bad for McCain/Palin. Palin's already starting to be the butt of jokes, McCain doesn't know where Spain is, and the economy is reshuffling the deck again--and firmly away from the GOP. I expect Obama to do pretty well in the debates,

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-15319146611595169332008-09-17T12:48:00.000-07:002008-09-18T12:49:12.456-07:00

Today's polls confirm that poll findings during the past ten days have reflected a post-convention, post-Palin bounce. And now it's over.In case the image isn't clear, Obama is now back up by two according to the Gallup daily tracker. I have no idea what will happen henceforth, but to take my victory lap, this is pretty much what I expected.Update, 9/18: It's now at four, 48-44. Bonus findings

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-57560607225848981592008-09-16T12:15:00.000-07:002008-09-16T12:25:27.301-07:00

Even before she melted down today and said that neither Palin nor McCain could run a Fortune 500 company, Carly Fiorina has been a terrible surrogate. She regularly lies, she hasn't a clue about anything beyond business, and grossly misunderstands economic issues. And then, recall the Viagra debacle?So now she declares Palin and McCain unfit to run a big corporation. Question: wasn't that what

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-25733132333437891782008-09-16T11:10:00.001-07:002008-09-16T11:31:12.329-07:00

David Brooks is smart and observant and also deeply conflicted and venal. The reason is because he is intellectually man enough to admit this:Sarah Palin has many virtues. If you wanted someone to destroy a corrupt establishment, she’d be your woman. But the constructive act of governance is another matter. She has not been engaged in national issues, does not have a repertoire of historic

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-43788907992015289292008-09-13T11:19:00.000-07:002008-09-13T11:37:03.320-07:00

Today's Gallup Daily tracking poll, as I suspected, is showing a return to normalcy. After the convention bounce, McCain's numbers are now falling back to earth (even as his campaign descends into the gutter).These numbers represent a three-day rolling average, from Wednesday through yesterday. In other words, they are likely rounding the effect of McCain's fall. It's not unreasonable to

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-28112212648005625092008-09-10T17:55:00.000-07:002008-09-10T18:12:14.813-07:00

Yesterday, as I rode by bike home in the warmth of a late summer's dog day, I decided to take myself up Mount Tabor (a residential hill in Portland, technically a mountain--it's a dead volcano--but quite wee by any reasonable standard). The White Stripes were playing on the iPod, and I was in a relaxed, serene mood.I have come to some calm regarding the election. Obama is running the best

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-30387270929712066812008-09-10T11:25:00.001-07:002008-09-10T11:33:40.463-07:00

Joe Biden offered one of the most nuanced answers about abortion I've ever heard a Democrat give. From Sunday's Meet the Press (I've cleaned the language up from the raw transcript):JOE BIDEN: I'd say, "Look, I know when [life] begins for me." It's a personal and private issue. For me, as a Roman Catholic, I'm prepared to accept the teachings of my church. But let me tell you. There are an awful

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-92211629711177860582008-09-09T16:51:00.000-07:002008-09-09T16:53:24.158-07:00

Four of Sarah Palin's best friends love her, but they're not necessarily voting for her.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-5863961807711882882008-09-09T13:05:00.000-07:002008-09-09T13:42:29.760-07:00

For reasons obscure even to me, I am feeling sanguine about the presidential race. We'll know at the beginning or middle of next week, but so many things point to doom for McCain that I gotta think our ship is going to come in. To wit:McCain's got no money. The conventions are over, and that means he's on the federal teat--$84 million to spend between now and election day. He'll still get

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-84421014965909586522008-09-08T11:17:00.000-07:002008-09-08T11:22:12.989-07:00

Over at TPM, you may note some insightful analysis by "TPM reader JA." I am he. He are me. We are one. It provoked me to write a post on BlueOregon because I figured the email to Josh would never see the light of day. So now there are two versions of roughly the same analysis. I'll link to the BlueO piece and paste in the TPM stuff below. By Josh Marshall________________09.08.08 -- 1:58PM

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-7291004412049658322008-09-08T09:55:00.000-07:002008-09-08T09:58:54.139-07:00

"McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points."--Gallup, 9/8/08The polls mean very little this week. We'll check back next week to see how they're settling down post-conventions. In one

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-8223666482165691422008-09-05T15:31:00.000-07:002008-09-05T15:39:30.808-07:00

Some folks have commented that O'Reilly didn't treat Obama with respect when he had him on last night, and although they're right, this misses the bigger picture. He was O'Reilly being O'Reilly--a horse's ass--and Obama was graceful, unrattled, and persistent. For O'Reilly, it was a risk to have Obama on there. Now he can't call him scared or say he bullied him. They met, Obama disagreed, and

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-60807059066454113762008-09-04T18:36:00.000-07:002008-09-04T18:41:45.911-07:00

Noted with derision.Percent of GOP delegates that are white: 93%*(Percent white in US: 80%)**(Percent white among Dem delegates: 56%)***Percent of GOP delegates who earn more than $500,000: 51%*_______________*CBS News** US Census***DNC

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-39785462521449316082008-09-04T18:30:00.000-07:002008-09-04T18:35:08.429-07:00

As the freak show of the RNC Convention continues, I become more agitated. No worries, with a candidate like this:"They don't have an agenda to run on. They haven't offered a single concrete idea so far in two nights about how they would make the lives of middle class Americans better. They've spent the entire two nights attacking me or extolling John McCain's biography, which is fine. They can

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-58540348312872312222008-09-03T09:19:00.000-07:002008-09-03T09:47:02.040-07:00

Following the Sarah Palin selection, which we in the Kremlin greeted with rapture, confusion set in. In the span of about 24 hours, I started hearing reports from the hinterland that Palin was a deal-maker for erstwhile Hillary voters (albeit very weak Dems, if Dems they be at all) and other assorted suspicious swing-voters. I have long lost any confidence in my ability to read the minds of the

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-17660746498127924102008-08-30T11:13:00.000-07:002008-08-30T11:17:53.686-07:00

According to Rasmussen, women don't like the Palin choice:Palin is the right choicesMen - 43%Women - 37%More likely to vote for McCainMen - 38%Women - 33%Palin favorabilityMen - 58%Women - 48%Looks like the gambit to woo Hillary voters has instantly backfired. Then there's this: voters are now evenly split on whether they're more likely to vote McCain because of Palin (35%) or less likely (33%),

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-20161354184375813592008-08-29T17:03:00.000-07:002008-08-29T17:11:02.478-07:00

Rove, doing his character-assassination thing, said this about Virginia Governor (and potential Obama veep) Tim Kaine just over two weeks ago:"With all due respect again to Governor Kaine, he's been a governor for three years. He's been able but undistinguished. I don't think people could really name a big, important thing that he's done ... [Kaine] was mayor of the 105th largest city in America

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-75072139470845123602008-08-29T16:56:00.000-07:002008-08-29T16:57:49.121-07:00

Yes he can ... get people to tune in:NEW YORK (AP) - Barack Obama's acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention was seen by more than 38 million people.Nielsen Media Research said more people watched Obama speak than watched the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, the final "American Idol" or the Academy Awards this year. Obama talked before a live audience of 80,000 people in

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-42079151376922117202008-08-29T16:30:00.001-07:002008-08-29T17:01:40.284-07:00

Just sayin.Barack ObamaEducation: Columbia, Harvard lawSouth Side Chicago Community organizer, 3 yearsConstitutional law professor, 8 yearsState legistlator, 8 yearsUS Senator, 4 yearsSarah PalinEducation: BS, U of Idaho (journalism)Wasilla (pop. 7700) city council, 4 yearsWasilla mayor, 6 yearsAlaska governor, 2 yearsLet us dispense with the equivalency argument, shall we?

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-25215174352331207802008-08-22T21:43:00.001-07:002008-08-22T21:46:32.651-07:00

Posting will be ever less frequent here at moribund Hog. I'm off to Denver, but Blue Oregon will get all my love. Kari's set up a Twitter account so that we can inform you not only of actual happenings (about which CNN, FOX, NBC, The Weather Channel, etc. will also, simultaneously be informing you), but those of a transitory, personal nature. I had vowed not to blog comments like, "Hey look,

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-69801486982956815642008-08-20T15:37:00.000-07:002008-08-20T15:43:07.462-07:00

Okay, I'll admit it: I'm worried. This just isn't good:It's a snapshot in time, admittedly, and those lines haven't quite touched yet, admittedly. And then there's this, which still bodes somewhat well:But still.

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-69219668614112874092008-08-14T14:22:00.000-07:002008-08-14T14:35:32.376-07:00

This Georgian invasion has gotten me to thinking. 1985 - Cold war forever. The balance of power rests on the broad shoulders of bipolarism, MAD, and the nuclear arms lining launching stations from Minnesota to Minsk. A grand, theatrical sense of the sweep of history--and not just a little doom-pervades society.1995 - Pax American, post-history. Democracy has triumphed, the roles of states is

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-39209196148382161442008-08-12T15:50:00.000-07:002008-08-12T15:58:27.376-07:00

The DNC just sent out additional speakers for the Convention. Among them, Claire McCaskill and Michelle's brother (and OSU hoops coach) Craig Robinson. Since there's a separate spot for the Veep candidate, I am going to go ahead and boldly predict that McCaskill will not be Obama's choice. I applied this same logic to Hillary. We could also eliminate Robinson, though the veepstake

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-20343621036276264142008-08-09T15:38:00.001-07:002008-08-09T15:57:20.857-07:00

I missed the opening ceremonies to the Olympics last night (wedding), and so when NBC announced they were coming back to show clips, I made sure to be in front of the set. But back in the studio, Jim Lampley was sitting next to--was it, yes, oh no--Jimmy Roberts. Roberts has achieved special status in the pantheon of American sports journalists for being the most sentimental, and yet at the

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-51951243931652443912008-08-08T10:49:00.000-07:002008-08-08T10:56:28.999-07:00

This is interesting: rather than get caught in a back-and-forth with Swift Boaters, lefty activists are planning to hit them where it will hurt--in the donors. Tom Mazzie is heading the effort, and his first strike will be letter mailed out to ten thousand conservative donors:The warning letter is intended as a first step, alerting donors who might be considering giving to right-wing groups to a

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-82746974583167918242008-08-07T12:48:00.001-07:002008-08-07T13:02:15.948-07:00

One of the things we'll lose with the departure of our dear Shrub--and I regard this as both a good and bad thing--is his wholly bizarre speech habits. Such as:The first thing, obviously, that can make a difference is conservation. What's interesting, however, is that people are plenty wise about how to conserve. You're making the choices about whether you want to drive a little extra more or

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-46196996691266050972008-07-31T20:32:00.000-07:002008-07-31T20:40:56.638-07:00

The recent descent into the gutter by the McCain camp has led to wide speculation about what they're trying to say. The guy who's out in front of it with the best and most cutting analysis is Josh Marshall, who is determined not to let McNasty have it both ways--playing the race card and keeping his hands clean. Effective messages hit multiple themes, different messages in different people's

Jeff Alworthnoreply@blogger.com0