tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-150285932024-03-23T10:58:56.789-07:00Low on the HogJeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.comBlogger1179125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-31784481128964122062021-03-19T08:29:00.005-07:002021-03-19T08:29:39.956-07:00History Suggests Big Change is ComingWhen
anyone analyzes American politics in 2021, a pervasive assumption
nearly always colors their thinking: that gridlock and polarization have
cemented the parties into a stalemate from which neither can escape.
This is a structural problem with no easy solutions. But what if that
isn’t true?There’s another way to look at this moment— one that suggests
Donald Trump presided over an Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-36345695907340639072021-02-05T11:00:00.003-08:002021-02-11T11:06:08.720-08:00The GOP’s Rightward RatchetFor
forty-odd years, from the moment my mom tried to explain the bizarre
development of a peanut farmer romping through the Democractic primary
in the mid-70s, I’ve been magnetized by politics. There’s something
irresistible about a massive human project with so many contradictory,
layered, and interdisciplinary impulses, all crashing against each other
to produce unexpected outcomes. Or itJeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-78920219246631471392021-01-13T10:34:00.002-08:002021-01-13T10:34:43.728-08:00Bursting the Shadow BubbleGovernments have faced hundreds of insurrections over the centuries, but none have been as well-documented
as last Wednesday’s MAGA mob. This is only partly because past rioters
haven’t owned smart phones: one of the weirdest — and most revealing —
quirks of the Capitol insurrection was how readily rioters were to
document their crimes. Through their smiles and triumphal IG posts about
“Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-51908312557035670682020-12-02T11:56:00.008-08:002020-12-02T12:00:17.753-08:002020 Considered: Part 1, the ResultsIn the first of three posts on the fallout of the 2020 election, I consider the results themselves.Magnitude of the WinThe final results are still not quite in (New York again sets the standard for failure
to tally ballots), but we know Biden won 306 electoral votes, will have
won more than 81 million votes overall, and achieved a margin that will
end up somewhere between 4.5–5% . That’s a Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-41032711720409234732020-10-27T10:15:00.001-07:002020-10-27T10:15:24.715-07:00The Election One Week OutThis is an unprecedented election. To date, ~60 million votes have already been cast [update: this morning’s reports vary from 62-66m], and that number could top 100m by Election Day. Election experts expect a huge turnout, most pegging the number at 150-160m—far more than the 137m who turned out in 2016. The really shocking development is that one party, through state suppression and Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-48981219602503887172020-07-18T12:45:00.005-07:002020-07-18T12:45:59.218-07:00On "Cancel Culture"
I just listened to a long podcast by smart people on “cancel culture” (or its doppelganger, “free speech” or being “politically incorrect”) and as so often, I felt like they missed the point. To me this seems really clear, so I thought I’d jot down some thoughts. (And sorry, they’re not brief.)
The discussion is, at its root, one of power. “Cancel culture” is the idea that if someone Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-33025979968062037912020-07-02T09:24:00.003-07:002020-07-02T09:27:22.686-07:00Random Thoughts Four Months OutScattered thoughts accumulating amid the torrent of news.
1. I keep reading the hot take that the veep selection “doesn’t
matter.” This is an over-reading of historical data. We have never had a
candidate a third of the electorate sees as having cognitive decline,
who will be 78 years old when he takes office, and who is almost
certainly not going to be able to serve 2 terms. He is very Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-55385683219134185152020-06-20T09:26:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:26:56.291-07:00
Imagine a foreign leader with a growing reputation for corruption
facing unrest at home amid a constant series of scandals. His own
government attempted to remove him, and he is facing a number of damaging
lawsuits. In order to quash them, he directs his government to fire the
attorney leading these investigations. How would the media report this
blatant corruption? How would our Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-80664993941970567522020-06-19T09:27:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:28:18.851-07:00JuneteenthAdam Serwer, the excellent Atlantic magazine writer, spoke today on
WNYC and offered what counts basically as a rosetta stone for American
politics--so important on this Juneteenth.
"Race is the
historically important political dividing line in American politics.
When you have a party that becomes ethnically homogeneous, they begin to
see nonwhite constituencies as a threat to their Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-346793476943407882020-06-18T09:30:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:31:20.414-07:00Summer Doldrums for TrumpA quick check-in on the state of the presidential election as the
days of summer heat up. Any election with an incumbent becomes a
referendum election—will the country extend the contract of the guy (so
far, always a guy) in office? That is all the more true this year, with
Trump’s uniquely polarizing status. Biden is functioning basically as a
generic Dem. So long as he doesn’t do anything Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-64584819191029826252020-06-10T21:33:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:33:42.877-07:00HeadlinesChecking the news tonight and--GOOD LORD.
“Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading”
“Fired inspector general says he told aides about Pompeo probe so that they 'wouldn't be surprised'”
“As Trump struggles to respond to crises, internal polling instills fear in advisers”
“Coronavirus infections appear to spike in U.S. even as they decline elsewhere”
“BritainJeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-36861641021215981502020-06-04T09:35:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:36:43.044-07:00The Hopefulness of the BLM ProtestsFor literally years now I have felt destabilized, low, depressed.
I'm a natural optimist, but my thoughts have not been easily turned from
darkness. I noticed over the weekend that something new had
dawned--hope. Seeing people of all stripes taking to the streets--in
places like Medford and Pendleton; everywhere, really--is enormously
healing. I've realized that this depressive state has Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-19790236081915512512020-05-31T09:41:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:41:37.514-07:00Black Lives MatterPortland tonight. We walked from the start of the march at Laurelhurst
Park until it reached the Eastside Sheriff’s station on Burnside. Police
had closed Burnside down (one of the busiest E-W corridors; a four-lane
street) for the March, which continued on. It was a huge protest, and
we were somewhere in the middle—it was so large we never saw the front
or back.
Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-50927556116021921182020-05-29T09:45:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:45:16.090-07:00Something's HappeningFeels like something changed in America overnight.Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-43920692414707195922020-05-19T09:48:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:48:43.855-07:00Thoughts On Oregon's Primary Election DayElection day seems like a nice excuse to talk politics. The
dispiriting candidacy of Joe Biden has stopped me from more chatter, but
let’s dive in. In bullet-point form, a snapshot:
• Biden’s
candidacy is about what one would expect: a snore enlivened largely by
skeletons rattling around behind him on Zoom. In one way, the
coronavirus is good—it keeps him out of the public eye. He can
Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-76208237426365355272020-04-29T09:53:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:54:15.887-07:00Vote Eudaly
A
brief, not-super-informed comment about the upcoming Oregon primary.
The most interesting races are happening in Portland, where the mayor
and three of four city council seats are up for grabs. One of these is
easy (Carmen Rubio), one is a wildcard (position 2, to replace Nick
Fish), one is inevitable (Wheeler’s cruising, despite a very weak,
secretive term—I plan to vote Iannarone), andJeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-15164262996203812222020-04-16T09:56:00.000-07:002020-07-02T09:57:54.244-07:00Meditation During CoronavirusIn times of intense experience, when we find our minds and emotions
spinning out of control, meditation can be an enormous benefit. I’ve
been doing this for over twenty years, and I’ve found it hugely helpful.
I’m a Buddhist, and there are ways to make the practice religious—but
it need not be. No one asked for this unsolicited advice, and I try not
to promote even quasi-religious stuff. ButJeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-48956661163803438282020-04-11T10:08:00.000-07:002020-07-02T10:08:40.321-07:00Empty City
I
went on a bike ride yesterday (Friday, April 10) between 2 and 3pm and took a pass
through downtown and the Pearl, the densest parts of the city. It was a
sunny, 70-degree day and would normally have been teeming with people
who’d ducked out of work early (a famously Portlandian practice on sunny
spring days).
I found a city even more deserted that I would have imagined. This is a Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-60768853945145877622020-03-27T10:11:00.000-07:002020-07-02T10:12:03.172-07:00State Budgets and CoronavirusOne of the biggest fiscal consequences of the coronavirus will be on
state budgets. Every one in the country save Vermont has some sort of
balanced budget law that prevents it from spending more than it takes
in. This is the result of decades-old conservative efforts to cripple
government, and the latest push happened after the Reagan revolution
when about a third of the states added one.
Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-69920436305914163282020-03-21T10:13:00.000-07:002020-07-02T10:14:05.242-07:00Kate Brown Confronts a CrisisPublic policy is not always obvious. It’s easy to narrow focus on an
element of interest and miss other downstream effects decisions/policies
may have. In the panic of the moment, the safe move seems to be
shutting down human contact as much as possible. Governors who issue
shelter-in-place orders are lauded as serious; those who wait castigated
for their shortsightedness. I suspect this Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-2463694427723338792020-03-13T10:17:00.000-07:002020-07-02T10:17:18.332-07:00Political Acumen vs Demagoguery
One of the more frustrating aspects of the Trump presidency has been
the widespread tendency to attribute political acumen to his “method.”
The basis for this has been the unwavering support of 38% of the public,
plus another 8% who are inclined to support him. Since nothing he does
shakes their faith in him, the argument goes, he’s a canny political
savant.
Abundant evidence refutes Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-38111072007374877252020-03-11T10:17:00.000-07:002020-07-02T10:19:26.165-07:00This is Getting RealIn the last 24 hours:
The NBA has suspended its season. Major conferences have cancelled basketball tournaments and the NCAA
has decided to hold national tournament games in empty stadiums (stadia
for grammar nerds).
The Dow has lost 3,500 points (9:45 am)
The president gave a national address in which he misstated his own policy and blamed the pandemic on foreigners.
High Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-75067187264283794852020-03-04T10:20:00.000-08:002020-07-02T10:21:18.095-07:00I Guess It's BidenWell, that was unexpected.
Before Joe Biden won South
Carolina, it was inconceivable that he’d exit Super Tuesday with the
most delegates, but that’s just what he did. He now has 453 to Bernie’s
382. That’s almost certainly the election. Bernie’s strategy involved
building a big lead on Super Tuesday and holding it as Biden emerged as
the consensus alternative. Now that he’s trailing, it’sJeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-17221636053031303972020-02-26T10:23:00.000-08:002020-07-02T10:24:00.684-07:00Bernie's Body Man
Yay, Jesse!
I saw him at Loyal Legion not long after he took over body-man duties
and I’ve been quietly crowing about it since. You know something else
about Jesse Cornett Willamette Week didn’t mention? Back in ‘04 he was one of three founders
of the blog BlueOregon—with Kari Chisholm and moi. Congrats, man!
Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15028593.post-41944561095779306312020-02-25T10:24:00.000-08:002020-07-02T10:25:36.971-07:00Bloomberg's Corrupting Influence
Let’s
talk about Mike Bloomberg and the corrupting influence of money in
politics. His campaign has been treated as largely benign because he’s
using his money transparently rather than making secret buy-offs with
shady figures and foreign hackers. His corruption seems less dangerous
because it’s happening right in front of us. But it is corruption in the
formal sense of the term—he’s Jeff Alworthhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02930119177544342495noreply@blogger.com0