[Elections]
The Tea Leaves Don't Speak (Or Do They?)
The forces of good are delighted by yesterday's election results: GOP defeats in Virginia, New Jersey, and Schwarzenland. I'm deeply skeptical that it means anything, though. We're talking a sample size of three, and that hardly represents a trend. I think it's safe to say that Bush has no coattails--his last minute fly-by in Virginia did not help the Republican--but this isn't proof he's toxic, yet, either (at least in red states). An election-day visit isn't likely to have much effect in any case, and it's pretty clear that he was just mailing this one in.
If Dems want any hopeful harbinger, they might look at the mayoral election in St. Paul. The incumbent, Randy Kelly, had only lost one election in the last thirty years, but in 2004 he endorsed Dubya. Result? A 69%-31% thrashing by Chris Coleman. A poll before the election found that two-thirds of the electorate was influenced byKelly's Bush endorsement--and clearly most of them were influenced to vote against him.
It's the red-state voters Dems are going to have to convince to switch teams to seize power, and it's hard to say what they're thinking (of the three major election results, two of the GOP defeats came in blue states). But in blue states, Bush is toxic. Moderate congressmen and senators from blue states are no doubt raising eyebrows over this, and they're probably the most vulnerable.
1 comment:
I think the Virginia result is a little more significant than you do. The Virginia suburbs have been pretty solidly Republican for quite a while (if memory serves, they went against Clinton in '96), so the switch is dramatic. Also, Kilgore ran a standard, rovian campaign full of dirty tricks and nasty insinuations, the kind of campaign the GOP counts on to win for them. Only this time it backfired.
I think it's a sign that people are finally getting tired of sleaze and finally acknowledging who's responsible for it. That's not necessarily or even likely a purely regional phenomenon.
I think the pendulum is starting to swing back the other way. The Pubs have over-reached themselves in so many different areas that a previously denial-ridden electorate is finally beginning to have to face reality--and they don't like what they see.
But I agree that the Bush-sodden Red states will be the last to get it, and whether the pendulum will swing far enough fast enough to affect them by next year is open to question. At least we now have reason for some hope that the US public is waking up.
Post a Comment