[Sports, Gambling]

Seattle By a Nose

As we teeter on the edge of Superbowl weekend, I will now alienate my fourteen readers with a post on who will win. The Vegas line has Pittsburgh by four, most of the sports (and I use this term advisedly) intelligentsia like the Steelers, and the majority of Americans, who have no interest in Seattle football, also like the Steelers. I'm pulling for the Steelers, too, but I think they're going to run out of luck in Detroit, never mind the Cowher and Bettis storylines.


For one, the Steelers have made a remarkable run through the playoffs by surprising teams early with un-Steeler-like play; lots of Big Ben, little of Fast Willie. It's worked because as they marched down the field, teams kept playing the run. But Holmgren has had two weeks to prepare, and won't be suprised by an early charge. If the Steelers don't get out early, it reduces their offensive options, and Seattle can grind along with Shaun.

On defense, the Steelers have been able to take pretty big chances, knowing they've got a team chasing them. If they're behind or trading scores, they'll have to play it safer, giving Hasselbeck room to maneuver and opening up Seattle's offense.

The Steelers have a lot more to lose, and that shifts the mo in this game--until now they've been the (ahem) steely underdogs playing loose and hard. But now they're coming in the faves, and everyone knows what the game means to Jerome and Cowher. But Seattle isn't supposed to win, so they'll be playing loose, and Holmgren is likely to come out early with surprised and put the Steelers behind the same eight ball they've put the Colts and Broncos behind. I'm pulling for Jerome, but I fear Shaun and Matt. Seattle's going to sneak away with the ring.