[Movies]

Oscar Predictions.

We have a little game we play, less interesting by the year, but nevertheless we play, in which we attempt to predict the Oscar winners. The game is increasingly an exercise in cyncism, for the Academy tends to reward a certain kind of film--melodramatic (M), historical (H), made by one of the big wheels on Hollywood's campus (BW). For example, here are recent winners of best picture:

1996 - The English Patient (H, M)
1997 - Titanic (H, M, BW)
1998 - Shakespeare in Love (H)
1999 - American Beauty
2000 - Gladiator (H, M, BW)
2001 - A Beautiful Mind (H, M, BW)
2002 - Chicago (H, BW)
2003 - Lord of the Rings
2004 - Million Dollar Baby (H, M, BW)

Deviations in other categories are not remarkable, save--occasionally--for writing and best supporting actress. With that in mind, here follow my picks in major categories for this year's big show* (my predictions bolded):

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Paul Haggis, Crash
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Steven Spielberg, Munich

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash
George Clooney and Grant Heslov, Good Night, and Good Luck
Woody Allen, Match Point
Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
Stephen Gaghan, Syriana

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Darwin's Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Street Fight

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*Who knows, it might actually be big--Jon Stewart's hosting. (In what must surely become a failed attempt to lure youthful types to watch Hollywood honor movies they've never seen. Yes Hollywood, your time is done.)