Tuesday, May 16, 2006

[Oregon Primary]

The Pundits Predict.

Each year, Kari Chisholm, co-founder of BlueOregon (with me and Senate District 24 candidate Jesse Cornett) convenes a "Punditocracyology Challenge" among 232 various Oregon pols, wonks, hacks, and insiders (and, since I participated, outsider hanger-on wannabes). He has the results of our selections out today, which could be a barometer for tonight's results.

A couple of interesting findings cropped up. Despite relatively close polling, no one thinks Jim Hill has a shot in the gubernatorial primary against incumbent Governor Ted Kulongoski (96%-4%). In the even closer GOP primary, 71% like Ron Saxton over Kevin Mannix (26%).

In the Second Congressional, three of the four Dems look to have a shot, according to (the heavily Portlandocentric) pundits: two are tied at 31%, Chuck Butcher comes in a respectable 21%.

For locals, this will be both shocking and unsurprising. Ted Wheeler is expected to win outright over incumbent Multnomah County Chair Diane Linn by a whopping 70%. Another 22% think she can force a run-off, but only 9% (I'm rounding here) think she can win outright.

And finally, one more for locals. That Dan Saltzman/Amanda Fritz race I called close in the earlier post? Overwhelmingly (80%), pundits say Saltzman will win outright. That'd suprise me, anyway. I thought Fritz was running stronger.

Oh yeah, and Cheney's a rat bastard. (A little something for non-Oregonians.)


Torrid said...

Hey, how come you get to link to it, and I don't? Kari shushed me pretty good this morning for posting on it...

Kari Chisholm said...

Yeah, because I just saw this.

Shush! Shush!

1. I want to make sure to maintain some incentive for participating. Otherwise, no one will participate and just ask for the results. But, then, it'll suck.

2. I want to make sure the numbers are characterized correctly. Jeff has 'em described accurately as the percentage of the PUNDITS who picked a winner. Torrid, you didn't describe 'em any which way, which implied (for example) that TedK was going to get 96% of the vote.

3. We more than doubled the participation this year - mostly with audience clickthrus from BlueOregon. Consequently, I'm less confident in the quality of the punditocracy.

Kevin Hayden said...

Frankly, when ya don't live in Portland, it's hard to remain updated on every race in those enviros. I started to take the challenge, then found myself saying 'who are these guys?' too many times, so I felt compelled to not enter. Yet I consider myself to be more knowledgable than the average voter.

Based on what I see in those polls, I think you overrate Roberts, as he doesn't get as great support in Lane Co as you'd expect a homeboy should.

I was also surprised to see how many lobbyists took part in your challenge.

Jeff Alworth said...

Sorry, Kari, you're a big blogger type, and I didn't see any prohibition in your email, so I ran with it. What're ya gonna do? Bloggers.

Seven minutes til polls close, no point in adjusting it now.

Torrid said...

Kari oughta know that email is on the record! Next time he should attach the super-secret decoder ring, uh, decoder code. (Or say "don't publish this.")

If I'd just posted the Wheeler results, where 70% of said he'd win, I'd have been right no matter what people thought it represented!