Dems Doomed in Fall.
What is the likelihood of a Democratic victory in November? In the House, Senate, both--however lucky you're feeling. All the numbers say it's a gimme. Right track/wrong track numbers boggle the mind (28% to 64%). Fifty-eight percent now oppose the Iraq war about which the President is so proud. It's a classic sixth-year election, sayeth the poly sci profs, in which groaning boredom of the incumbent President leads voters to throw out the ruling bums. The number of "battleground" races continues to grow, and the number swinging left make a House win look like a done deal. Charlie Cook says it is so.
Pah! I say.
The GOP are the most viscious of street fighters, and they are playing the game of outsized negativity. You got your fear (documented below), you got your covert racism (see debate, immigration), and you got your name calling ("sure we're incompetent, but you don't change horses midstream and hand the reigns to crack-addicted pedophiles. That's what Democrats are, as you know, crack-addicted peodphiles with your tax dollars.").
Reasonable people, like my co-worker, who earlier today made this argument, believe that the GOP is so incompetent, so evil, and so obvious that it will backfire this year for sure. Hell, even Southerners are beginning to pull their support!
This may be true, but it was true in 2004, 2002, and even, to a lesser extent, in 2000, and the dull-witted, fear-addled voters still voted GOP. They are, if anything, more dull-witted now, and this is why I believe the GOP will retain the House and Senate. My evidence?
Asked whether former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, 52 percent said he was not, but 43 percent said they believe he was.I've seen this movie before and I know how it ends. Give me a call on the 9th and we'll go cry in our beers. First round's on me.