Friday, October 06, 2006

[Polls]

Foley Scandal: No Effect. Wait, This Just In ...

In the first week following the great Foley Coverup Scandal, it looks like the fracas is having no effect on voters. This according to the most recent Pew poll:
The Foley story has not significantly affected the midterm race: In interviewing conducted before news of the scandal surfaced, Democrats led by 51%-38% among registered voters; in the days after Foley resigned, the Democratic advantage was unchanged (50%-37%). Similarly, the scandal's impact on opinions of GOP congressional leaders ­ and the Republican Party's image for honest and ethical governance ­ has been fairly limited.
So while this may have an effect on selected races (Foley's vacated seat and Reynolds'), it doen't seem to affect things on a macro level.

But wait! Fox News says it ain't so. According to an internal poll they got wind of:
"The data suggests Americans have bailed on the speaker," a Republican source briefed on the polling data told FOX News. "And the difference could be between a 20-seat loss and 50-seat loss."

...The GOP source told FOX News that the internal data had not been widely shared among Republican leaders, but as awareness of it spreads calculations about Hastert's tenure may change. The source described the pollster who did the survey as "authoritative," and said once the numbers are presented, it "could change the focus" on whether the speaker remains in power.
No doubt that GOP source was someone hoping to help Hastert out the door, but this is mighty interesting (particularly given that Hastert doesn't want to go). Very interesting.

2 comments:

A little bird said...

Someone on NPR (sorry I'm vague) suggested that the recent scandals plaguing the GOP will make it more difficult for them to galvanize their base on the religious right. There may be some disillusionment leading to voter apathy amongst their ranks. We can only hope!

Chuck Butcher said...

Faux news? How about scare the base into turning out with a huge Dem win?