Thursday, April 26, 2007

18-Month Quiz

We are just over 18 months from the November election in 2008. Friends and I have begun bandying about possible scenarios for the final segment of the Bush adminstration and the lead-up to the war. What follows is a quiz we developed. Get your bids in now. No prizes, just bragging rights.


Foreign Policy

1. Iran.
A) Iranians comply with international pressure, submit to inspections and dismantle their enrichment program; US stands pat.

B) Iranians continue to play coy about enrichment, bringing some international support against the US and manage to hold off inspections through the election; Bush rattles his tin sabre but the US stands pat.

C) Tensions escalate, the US pushes a UN sanction, and Iran refuses to comply. Embargoes ensue and the international community slowly progresses toward a confrontation, led by Bush. Congressional hearings conclude before any declarations and the US stands ready to invade.

D) Scenario C progresses more rapidly, without UN support, and Bush begins selective bombing of suspected enrichment sites. Congress neither approves nor opposes the action.

E) Bush is opposed by the international community, Congress (including key GOP leaders), and the joint chiefs, and launches a covert nuclear attack.

F) Other _____________________
2. Iraq
A) The surge improves things marginally in Baghdad; Bush and McCain declare victory, begin withdrawing troops while ignoring the continued violence.

B) The status quo continues; violence and unrest and the steady decline to a hot civil war. The Dems can't convince Bush to withdraw and the death toll mounts.

C) After the surge fails and the elections approach, the GOP breaks rank with the White House and joins the Dems in a call for troop withdrawal. Nothing is binding, but Bush, without admitting defeat, begins a slow withdrawal.

D) The GOP join Dems to cut off funding, forcing Bush to pull out the troops in advance of the election.

E) Other ______________________
3. War on Terror
A) There are no attacks against Americans and the half-assed policies of the President lumber forward.

B) Dems force substantial changes in security issues (ports, funds for cities, etc.) and win favor for "engagement" diplomacy; no attack on US soil.

C) An attack hits the US, strengthens Bush's hand for first-term-style politics.

D) An attack hits the US; Bush's approval plummets and precipitates Congressional intervention (including, possibly, impeachment).

E. Other _____________________
4. Foreign Policy Surprise (Open ended)

5. Identify the unlikely doomsday scenario that might emerge before the election. (Open ended)


Election

6. The Democratic Nominee
A. Hillary Clinton
B. John Edwards
C. Al Gore
D. Barack Obama
E. Other ________________
7. The Republican Nominee
A. John McCain
B. Newt Gingrich
C. Rudy Guiliani
D. Mitt Romney
E. Fred Thompson
F. Other ________________
8. Dem Vice Presidential Nominee (open-ended)

9. GOP Vice Presidential Nominee (open-ended)

10. The Next President
A. John McCain
B. Newt Gingrich
C. Rudy Guiliani
D. Mitt Romney
E. Fred Thompson
F. Hillary Clinton
G. John Edwards
H. Al Gore
I. Barack Obama
J. Other __________________
11. Prescient piece of information you see about the electorate that people are overlooking. (open ended)

12. The House

A) Dems gain seats
B) Dems lose seats, hold the House
C) Dems lose seats, lose the House
D) Very little or no change.
13. Senate
A) Dems gain enough seats to have a fillibuster-proof majority
B) Dems gain some seats
C) Dems lose seats (and therefore the majority)
D) Senate stands pat at 50-49-1.
13a. (Oregonian subquestion) Who will be the next Senator from Oregon?
A) Steve Novick
B) Earl Blumenauer
C) Ben Westlund
D) Gordon Smith
E) Other _______________

Politics

14. The Bush Presidency
A) Scandals continue to plague the President, who slides further into isolation and disapproval. Congressional hearings and investigations reveal gross malfeasance and the suggestion of crime.

B) Either because of White House foreign policy bellicosity or because of scandal, Bush is impeached.

C) Bush, isolated and embattled, provokes an encounter with Iran.

D) Bush, isolated and embattled, declares martial law and suspends the election.

E) Congress loses interest in Bush, gets caught up in the '08 election, and the Bush presidency plays out with few successes and few failures, doomed to be remembered as a cautionary tale of incompetence and corruption.
15. The previously important issue that fails to excite interest in the coming year is:
A) tax cuts
B) abortion
C) terrorism
D) Iraq
E) gay rights/marriage
16. The emergent issue in the coming year is:
A) health care
B) global warming
C) gas prices
D) Iran
E) gun control
17. The unexpected development(s) in the next 18 months will be? (open ended)

6 comments:

Jeff Alworth said...

I had sort of hoped those who helped put this together would comment here for all posterity, but it looks like it happened via email. Well, nevermind, here are my answers for all posterity.

1-b, 2-c, 3-b (though it's impossible to predict an attack; if there is an attack, I think D is more likely)

4-This is a tough one, because so much could happen. My guess is that we'll see an emerging coalition of Middle East "rationalists," led by a country like Jordan (and possibly even--gasp!--Iran), who will try to band together as a third way between terror/chaos and the US.

5-The US is hit hard by a terror attack. We go for a reprise of 9/11 except that it's the Dems who push for a muscular response; they argue that they should have the reigns due to their competence and the election becomes about terror.

6-a, 7-e (I still don't buy Guiliani, nor a late-charging Newt, so...), 8-Bill Richardson (assuming Hillary or Edwards; if Barack wins, he'll take Wes Clark), 9-Chuck Hagel, 10-Hillary,

11-The evangelical vote will split--part will stay GOP, part will get dejected and stay home. And part will be inspired to switch to a Dem who can speak to poverty, Darfur-like issues, and global warming. This will actually be a fair constituency in the Dem primary, and Obama and Edwards will reap the benefit. Young people will vote in larger numbers than in any election since McGovern.

12-a, 13-b, 13a-d, 14-d (though 'a' is an outside possibility), 15-a, b, and e, 16-a and (to a lesser extent) b.

17-Despite my prediction that Hillary will win it all, I counterintuitively also predict that Barack Obama excites heretofore abandoned constituencies of the youth, religiously liberal, and nonpartisan progressive to create a JFK-style, feel-good campaign that sweeps him into office and precipitates a wholesale realignment of traditional political coalitions (dooming the GOP to a generation in the wilderness).

Jeff Alworth said...

14 should be "e" not "d."

jenny rotten & stinker bell said...

Foreign Policy

1. Iran.
A) Iranians comply with international pressure, submit to inspections and dismantle their enrichment program; US stands pat.

B) Iranians continue to play coy about enrichment, bringing some international support against the US and manage to hold off inspections through the election; Bush rattles his tin sabre but the US stands pat.

C) Tensions escalate, the US pushes a UN sanction, and Iran refuses to comply. Embargoes ensue and the international community slowly progresses toward a confrontation, led by Bush. Congressional hearings conclude before any declarations and the US stands ready to invade.

D) Scenario C progresses more rapidly, without UN support, and Bush begins selective bombing of suspected enrichment sites. Congress neither approves nor opposes the action.

E) Bush is opposed by the international community, Congress (including key GOP leaders), and the joint chiefs, and launches a covert nuclear attack.

F) Other _____________________
2. Iraq
A) The surge improves things marginally in Baghdad; Bush and McCain declare victory, begin withdrawing troops while ignoring the continued violence.

B) The status quo continues; violence and unrest and the steady decline to a hot civil war. The Dems can't convince Bush to withdraw and the death toll mounts.

C) After the surge fails and the elections approach, the GOP breaks rank with the White House and joins the Dems in a call for troop withdrawal. Nothing is binding, but Bush, without admitting defeat, begins a slow withdrawal.

D) The GOP join Dems to cut off funding, forcing Bush to pull out the troops in advance of the election.

E) Other ______________________
3. War on Terror
A) There are no attacks against Americans and the half-assed policies of the President lumber forward.

B) Dems force substantial changes in security issues (ports, funds for cities, etc.) and win favor for "engagement" diplomacy; no attack on US soil.

C) An attack hits the US, strengthens Bush's hand for first-term-style politics.

D) An attack hits the US; Bush's approval plummets and precipitates Congressional intervention (including, possibly, impeachment).

E. Other _____________________
4. Foreign Policy Surprise (Open ended)

Right-wing fundamentalist Christians in the U.S., in collaboration with fundamentalist Zionists in Israel, mount a global attack in order to bring about the second coming of Christ.

5. Identify the unlikely doomsday scenario that might emerge before the election. (Open ended)

Right-wing fundamentalist Christians in the U.S. use their secret stash of weapons to attack the government -- then the Known World -- in order to bring about the End of Times and the second coming of Our Lord and Savior Jesus the Christ.


Election

6. The Democratic Nominee
A. Hillary Clinton
B. John Edwards
C. Al Gore
D. Barack Obama
E. Other ________________7. The Republican Nominee
A. John McCain
B. Newt Gingrich
C. Rudy Guiliani
D. Mitt Romney
E. Fred Thompson
F. Other ________________8. Dem Vice Presidential Nominee (open-ended)
Edwards?

9. GOP Vice Presidential Nominee (open-ended)

Romney?

10. The Next President
A. John McCain
B. Newt Gingrich
C. Rudy Guiliani
D. Mitt Romney
E. Fred Thompson
F. Hillary Clinton
G. John Edwards
H. Al Gore
I. Barack Obama
J. Other __________________
11. Prescient piece of information you see about the electorate that people are overlooking. (open ended)

The middle-schooler demographic is quite persuasive and will exert great pressure upon their voting parents.

12. The House
A) Dems gain seats
B) Dems lose seats, hold the House
C) Dems lose seats, lose the House
D) Very little or no change.
13. Senate
A) Dems gain enough seats to have a fillibuster-proof majority
B) Dems gain some seats
C) Dems lose seats (and therefore the majority)
D) Senate stands pat at 50-49-1.13a. (Oregonian subquestion) Who will be the next Senator from Oregon?
A) Steve Novick
B) Earl Blumenauer
C) Ben Westlund
D) Gordon Smith
E) Other _______________
Politics

14. The Bush Presidency
A) Scandals continue to plague the President, who slides further into isolation and disapproval. Congressional hearings and investigations reveal gross malfeasance and the suggestion of crime.

B) Either because of White House foreign policy bellicosity or because of scandal, Bush is impeached.

C) Bush, isolated and embattled, provokes an encounter with Iran.

D) Bush, isolated and embattled, declares martial law and suspends the election.

E) Congress loses interest in Bush, gets caught up in the '08 election, and the Bush presidency plays out with few successes and few failures, doomed to be remembered as a cautionary tale of incompetence and corruption.

The previously important issue that fails to excite interest in the coming year is:
A) tax cuts
B) abortion
C) terrorism
D) Iraq
E) gay rights/marriage,
16. The emergent issue in the coming year is:
A) health care
B) global warming
C) gas prices,
D) Iran
E) gun control
17. The unexpected development(s) in the next 18 months will be? (open ended)

Bush gets diagnosed with a tragic terminal disease! This causes great ambivalence for radicals and gives him a great excuse for his Very Bad behavior. Per the emerging demograpic phenomenon of the Baby Boomers, a small but powerful group of middle aged radicals recycles the strategies embraced by members of '60s social movements and attempts to overthrow the government and transform society.

Monster said...

1. Iran.

F) Other: Similar to E, but no nuclear (unless you
meant attacks on nuclear facilities). Irans
involvement, or apparent involvment, in Iraq will
ignite tensions between the US and Iran, and Bush will
order strike all over Iran from the carriers in the
Pacific. Iran will attempt to strike US and Israel
with long range missiles stored in underground
facilities.

2. Iraq

*C) After the surge fails and the elections approach,
the GOP breaks rank with the White House and joins the
Dems in a call for troop withdrawal. Nothing is
binding, but Bush, without admitting defeat, begins a
slow withdrawal. (I saw photo's today of American
soldiers writing numbers on the necks of Iraqi men,
and on the hands of Iraqi women, to mark them as
belonging to a particular part of the city as part of
the crackdown. How can we be successful?)


3. War on Terror

*C) An attack hits the US, strengthens Bush's hand for
first-term-style politics.



4. Foreign Policy Surprise (Open ended)
Taiwan's efforts at militarizing draws China's ire,
and China invades Taiwan declaring martial law. The
US threatens retaliation, but does nothing.


5. Identify the unlikely doomsday scenario that might
emerge before the election. (Open ended)
After US attacks Iran (see above), Iran activates
sleeper cells in US and attacks ensue. Bush
capitalizes on the situation, and begins interning
Arab Americans, or anyone who looks like Arab
Americans, in detainment centers built by Haliburton
in the Southwest. Dirty bombs are set off in American
cities.

Election

6. The Democratic Nominee

*D. Barack Obama

7. The Republican Nominee

*C. Rudy Guiliani


8. Dem Vice Presidential Nominee (open-ended)
???
9. GOP Vice Presidential Nominee (open-ended)
???

10. The Next President

*C. Rudy Guiliani


11. Prescient piece of information you see about the
electorate that people are overlooking. (open ended)

Comfy Dems tend to be reactionary, whereas religious right is well
organized and accustomed to being in a sustained frenzy. Anti-war
fervor will ebb, and Republicans will take the presidency with
a combination of bigotry and disciplined delusion.

12. The House

*A) Dems gain seats


13. Senate


*B) Dems gain some seats


13a. (Oregonian subquestion) Who will be the next
Senator from Oregon?

*B) Earl Blumenauer


Politics

14. The Bush Presidency


*E) Congress loses interest in Bush, gets caught up in
the '08 election, and the Bush presidency plays out
with few successes and few failures, doomed to be
remembered as a cautionary tale of incompetence and
corruption.

15. The previously important issue that fails to
excite interest in the coming year is:

*A) tax cuts

16. The emergent issue in the coming year is:

*B) global warming

17. The unexpected development(s) in the next 18
months will be? (open ended)

One of the Democratic candidates will be assasinated (no, I'm not a terrorist,
and I REALLY hope I'm wrong).

A little bird said...

These answers may differ slightly from my e-mail predictions. I'm trying to be reasonable instead of wholly pessimistic. In a nutshell...

1. B
2. C
3. A
4. ?
5. An attack hits the U.S., Bush declares martial law and suspends the elections until we "win the global war on terror." Things go downhill from there.
6. A
7. E
8. Wesley Clark
9. ?
10. Hillary Clinton
11. They're not as smart as I used to think
12. D
13. B
13a. D
14. E
15. A
16. C

This is not a reflection of what I hope will happen, but rather what I wouldn't be surprised to see happen. What I fear will happen is more along the lines of my doomsday scenario, but perhaps even more paranoid.

Cap'n Cyber said...

1:Iran D) Scenario C progresses more rapidly, without UN support, and Bush begins selective bombing of suspected enrichment sites. Congress neither approves nor opposes the action.
2: Iraq: B) The status quo continues; violence and unrest and the steady decline to a hot civil war. The Dems can't convince Bush to withdraw and the death toll mounts.
3:C) A terrorist attack hits the US, strengthens Bush's hand for first-term-style politics.
4. Foreign Policy Surprise
Because Military Pres. Musharraf's forces are complicit in the American capture/killing of Bin Laden, tensions mount in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Washington calls for addtl. Internatl. troop placements in these countries to prevent the Taliban from taking over their central govts on waves of popular local support.
5: John Edwards
6: Giuliani
7. Dem Vice Presidential Nominee Barack Obama
8. GOP Vice Presidential Nominee Mitt Romney
9: G. John Edwards
10:C) Bush, isolated and embattled, provokes an encounter with Iran.
11:B) abortion
12:D) Iran
13. The unexpected development(s) in the next 18 months will be? Bin Laden will be captured or killed by U.S. and/or Allied operatives. Pres. Bush and the Republican Party will display this as a magnificent feather in their caps and Leftist analysts will accuse them of strategically orchestrating the event for political gain. It will nonetheless ultimately inspire many right-wing and middle of the road citizens to vote for the original 9/11 hero Mayor Giuliani, and the general election will consequently be much closer than currently anticipated.