Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Hillary's Effectively Done

Okay, it's back to movies for the rest of the week, but here's one more prediction. I expect that over the next few days a storyline will emerge that may doom the Clinton campaign: Barack's inevitable, and for the good of the party, Hillary has to step down if she doesn't win decisively in Ohio and Texas.

Obama's now up by roughly 140 pledged delegates. In order to get back in the game, Hillary will have to dish out a fair thumping--which will only result in a moral/momentum victory. Even a win of 20 points in both states, currently unimaginable, just gets 60 back from Obama. Meantime, he would be defraying these gains in other states. In fact, using this delegate calculator, it turns out that if she wins every remaining state by a margin of ten points, they'll be tied.

This reality will dawn on the Dems in the coming days. If, as everyone has been thinking, this thing goes to Puerto Rico, that's 108 days from right now (June 7). The Dems can't survive a 3+ month long battle--we have to have a nominee sooner or risk sacrificing the gimme election in November. So here's how it's got to play out--Obama will close the gap in Ohio and Texas and perhaps win Texas. Ohio, to be charitable, will go to Hillary. Obama will still be over 100 pledged delegates ahead, and the party will coalesce around him. Pressure will be overwhelming and Hillary will have to step aside. Even the Clinton campaign calls it "hard to imagine" that Clinton can catch Obama in pledged delegates. If they think trailing badly and drawing things out will secure the Superdelegates they need--well, that would be yet another miscalculation by the campaign.

I know I'm usually super gloomy about Obama's prospects, but the numbers don't lie. Barring scandal or other unanticipated game-changer, it's all but over.

2 comments:

Sarah said...

I hope you are right, Jeff. I see him winning Ohio over Texas. I am concerned about Texas. I do hope you are correct that any more wind out of the sails and she'll have to give up. But I am very worried about her bulldog nature nd her friends in the Super Delegation. What will we do if democracy doesn't work? I am being effected by your anxiety, Jeff.

Jeff Alworth said...

I am being effected by your anxiety, Jeff.

It's contagious!