Thursday, February 28, 2008

Good News, Bad News

Good news: Marc Ambinder crunches his own numbers and concludes:
If Florida and Michigan's delegations are seated fully to her advantage, and if she wins in Ohio by 65% and wins in Texas by 65%, and all other percentages hold, she can win the nomination.
Assumptions here.

Bad news: Texas is swinging back to Hillary, at least according to one analysis.
But a survey of 591 registered voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary in Texas conducted last night (February 27) indicates that Sen. Hillary Clinton has regained the lead in a race that remains within the survey’s margin of error. The results were:

Clinton: 47%
Obama: 43%
Undecided: 10%

“This is a classic sign that a race might be starting to turn. We see the undecided voters increasing and unsettled numbers in key age brackets. Moreover, Clinton has expanded her lead among Hispanic voters, while holding onto white votes. She has dropped slightly among women, but has gained among men.


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