Delegate Count on February 6, 2008In my earlier calculation, Clinton had a lead of 143 delegates, and this current total puts her at 162.
Caveats and things to look for: This is a conservative estimate. Since there's scanty state polling in the 2/5 primary states, Pollster's aggregates reflect older voter preferences. I will release on more of these predictions on Monday or Tuesday, and I'll get a little bolder about adjusting for trends. Below is the revised chart.
I calculated the proportion each candidate would receive based on these totals. (All Democratic primaries are proportional.) In some cases where earlier polling was available and a trend was evident, I adjusted accordingly.Unlike the major media outlets, I excluded Superdelegates, which are highly unpredictable (see here) and mutable.