Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Obamania: Potomac Edition

Let's start with Adam Nagourney, writing what I hope emerges as the central storyline of tonight's Obama wins:

The lopsided nature of Senator Barack Obama’s parade of victories on Tuesday gives him an opening to make the case that Democratic voters have broken in his favor and that the party should coalesce around his candidacy....

And his strength on Tuesday sliced across nearly every major demographic line, with two elements standing out: in Virginia and Maryland, according to surveys of voters leaving the polls, he beat Mrs. Clinton among women and the two were nearly even among white voters.
Numbers (all CNN)
930,840 - votes cast for Obama tonight
498,523 - votes cast for Clinton tonight
567,137 - votes cast for McCain and Huckabee combined

5,711 - total GOP voters in DC
112,860 - total Dem voters in DC
Obama's Virginia Exits (CNN)
+21% among women
+26% among those with no college degree
+26% among those earning less than $50k
+8% among Latinos
+5% among whites
+27% among union members
+23% among those aged 45-59
+12% among those over 60 years
Expectations were crazy high going in, and it seemed like a sure bet that Obama would fail to meet them--and yet he actually exceeded them. I thought the upper limit was 20%. Not a single poll showed Obama ahead more than 22% (60-38). In the final stunning tally, he won by 29 points, 64 to 35%. We are getting used to big margins, but this is pretty shocking, by any measure.

1 comment:

Torrid said...

quite so. Shocking is the right word. 75% in DC was within expectations for sure (although turnout was impressive in shitty conditions), MD was really about what I expected as well--in my best hopes--but VA is astounding. He was down almost 25 as late as October, for heaven's sake.

This is reaching tsunami-like proportions. What on earth does Hillary do, to arrest this pretty seismic shift? The demographic exits are leagues different than just LAST WEEK! Unreal. Something special is happening.