Wednesday, March 05, 2008

March 4 Aftermath

The results were pretty much what I expected (but hoped against). Obama got one win outright and probably swung the Texas two-step, but got beat soundly in Ohio and RI:

State_________ Clinton (Del)______Obama (Del)
Ohio
_____________54% (73)_________ 44% (62)
Texas Primary
____51% (16)_________ 48% (10)
Texas Caucus
_____48% (XX)_________ 52% (XX) - 36% reporting
Vermont
__________39% (6)__________ 59% (9)
Rhode Island
_____58% (13)_________ 40% (8)
The Times has her leading 115-88 delegates, which is far fewer than the full allotment (that'll take some time). Obama may make back some of the distance when they get in the caucus results. The net effect is something on the order of fewer than a 20-delegate gain by Hillary, possibly as low as ten, according to the various media folk who believe they know.

The math is pretty clear--Hillary's chance of securing the nomination went down after last night. In order to stay on pace, she needed to net 52 delegates. And recall that this is her firewall. Still, it's going to be a nice news cycle or two for her. Obama's probably going to let her have her day in the sun; he's classy that way.

Errata:
And so the wheel turns...

5 comments:

Pat Malach said...

I don't know about you, Jeff, but I'm looking forward to the unfolding of the new Aaron Rodgers era. They guy has had plenty of time to learn the system.

Here's some Favre/Portland trivia for ya:

In 1991 Brett Favre played his first NFL "game" in Portland. the Falcons played the Seahawks at Civic Stadium. It wasn't a real game. Each team ran 10 offensive plays. Then they switched back and forth every ten plays. Favre's first pass that day went for a touchdown.

On the sidelines, he was wearing a University of Oregon cap. I was covering the game for the UO student paper, so afterward I asked Favre about why the Oregon hat. He said he thought he'd get more love from the crowd with that hat.

A character even back then.

Jeff Alworth said...

Uh oh, does this mean he has a future in politics??

Love me the Pack, and I'm actually delighted that he chose this moment to go. It's hard hanging 'em up, but aside from the extremely rare Bettis-like exits, this was a pretty good time. He exonerated himself after the debacle of '06 and gave Rodgers another year to age. All looks good in Packerland.

Pat Malach said...

Then you might enjoy this photo From my uncle and cousin, who are Lambeau season-ticket holders.

Sarah said...

In terms of the numbers for last night, according to CNN, it now appears that the Texas second step went more for Obama. The way I calc the delagate numbers with this in mind, Obama got aprox. 182 and Hillary close to 188. I think last night turned out much better than it could have.

Hey everyone, get out your credit cards and do a little donating to Obama today to show he's got major support. But donate in lower figures because it looks like we'll have to do this a few more times before August.

Pat Malach said...

My Uncle Ralph, the Lambeau season ticket holder, says Craig Nall is better than Rodgers.

Believe it or not, I saw Nall play in 2001 in Missoula.

Northwestern St. (LA) faced the U of M Grizzlies in a first-round playoff game against Northwestern (Louisiana) State. The Griz won that game 28-19, but had to score 21 unanswered points in the second half to do it.

Nall was 24-46 for 339 yards and no interceptions. I remember being very impressed with his play and commenting about it at the time.