Friday, April 25, 2008

Changes Since '04

I am beginning to mount a case about why, barring Democratic meltdown or unforseen GOP-benefiting catastrophe, John McCain can't win in 2008. Looking back at some of the polling at election time, there have been some massive changes in public opinion. None of them benefit McCain. To wit:

Bush approval
Iraq a good idea
Iraq brought security
Economy good
Better off than 4 yrs ago
Worse off than 4 yrs ago
Right direction
Wrong track
Worried about terror
The effect of priorities on the election are less predictable, but here the number 1 priorities Americans cite in 2004 (aggregate of three polls taken in 2004 by NBC, Time, and ABC) and now (aggregate of four recent polls):

Health Care
Gas prices
"Moral issues"
As you can see, the fringe issues have changed. Now immigration has replaced moral issues as the cause of the right. It's unclear why pollsters have dropped education and taxes from their list. Also worth noting: while the health care numbers look the same, there's great volatily among polls. In the four recent polls I looked at, the percentage of Americans citing this as their biggest concern were 6%, 7%, 12%, and 18%. So that's one to watch.

Looking particularly at how the mood of the country has shifted from war and terror (29%) to the economy (37%), it's one of many suggestions that McCain is the wrong candidate this year.

No comments: