Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Three Reasons Not to Panic

For reasons obscure even to me, I am feeling sanguine about the presidential race. We'll know at the beginning or middle of next week, but so many things point to doom for McCain that I gotta think our ship is going to come in. To wit:
  • McCain's got no money. The conventions are over, and that means he's on the federal teat--$84 million to spend between now and election day. He'll still get lots of help from 527s and the RNC, but this limits the amount he can spend on Get Out the Vote efforts andon his ground game. Obama, by contrast, should raise in the $50 - 60 million range each month (conservatively; he raised $51 mil in July and could conceivably post numbers 50-100% higher during the last two months). That gives him tens of millions more to spend during crunch time.
  • Obama has a massive field operation--by some accounts a 3 to 1 advantage in terms of field offices. In Ohio, Obama has 33 offices to McCain's 9. He has a 28-6 advantage in Virginia, 22-11 in Michigan, 23-6 in Iowa, 18-1 in Pennsylvania, and so on. Obama's paid staff likewise dwarfs McCain's. While ads help a campaign, volunteers do a far more effective job. One of the surest ways to win votes is to talk directly to voters. Obama, the community organizer, is putting this into practice.
  • Obama looks great in the delegate race. Look at the map below, from Pollster's polling trends. You will see that Obama currently leads in every state John Kerry won except Michigan and New Hampshire, both of which are currently listed as toss-ups. Obama also leads in Iowa and New Mexico (it shouldn't be colored toss-up; Obama has a 7-point lead), states Kerry lost. None of the states Kerry won are leaning McCain. Of the toss-up states, seven were won by Bush.

Oh, and one bonus reason: McCain's message is in disarray, and the Sarah Palin record is now getting lotsa scrutiny. We'll know a lot more next week in terms of polling, but there are good reasons to think Obama's still on-track for a win.

1 comment:

A little bird said...

Ok, I won't apply for a Canadian visa yet. Good god, I sure hope you're right. Thanks for holding my figurative hand! :)