Monday, October 20, 2008

CO, NM, and IA

From time to time I check out the electoral calculators by way of giving myself a reality check. Here's something to keep in mind when you're thinking about the map. Ohio doesn't matter. Florida doesn't matter. Virginia, NC, Missouri--none of these matter. If Obama wins just three states that Bush won in '04, he wins the election: Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa.

In each case, Obama has a lead of more than six points in aggregated poll results. McCain has pulled out of Colorado and Iowa, and Latinos are starting to break hard for Obama in New Mexico. You have to go back to early September, when McCain got his convention bounce, to find any polls Obama trailed. In Iowa, McCain has never led. If Obama picks up some of the other "battleground" states, it could get ugly quick--but they're just gravy. These three states ensure Obama the win.

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