Monday, June 06, 2016

Sort of the Presumptive Nominee!

Tonight, Hillary Clinton (sort of) officially became the presumptive nominee. The AP has located enough superdelegates to put her over the top. But there's a more compelling reason why tomorrow will be the real day of her presumption, no matter what happens in California.

She won Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands over the weekend and now has something like 1860 pledged delegates (no one has added those to the tally yet). There are 4051 pledged delegates available, and she currently has around 46% of those. (Bernie has about 38% of all pledged delegates.)

Tomorrow another 694 pledged delegates are up for grabs. If Hillary grabs 167 of those, she'll have secured over half the pledged delegates. She'll also have gotten millions more votes than Bernie (~3 million). She has won (to date) seven more states/territories than Bernie.

Bernie's remaining hope is that those Democratic superdelegates will overturn the voters' will and deny Hillary the right to be the first female nominee in US history. (Approximate likelihood: less than a snowball's chance in hell.)


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