Democratic Power Rankings, January 2019

Time for round two of the Democratic power rankings for 2020. This is my own idiosyncratic sense of who has the best chance to actually win the nomination. For example, Joe Biden has great name recognition and has dominated early polling, but he’s a terrible candidate and I don’t see much of a path for him to win the nomination. I’m thinking of all the usual factors: charisma, name recognition, resume, policy positions, primary calendar alignment, ability to raise funds.

Many of the names here have their fortunes tied to other names. For example, there’s a lane for a crusty old dude who will appeal to older, rural working-class whites. If Biden opts in, Landrieu will opt out and Brown’s position will weaken. In the happy warrior lane, Beto will damage the likes of Hickenlooper. Merkley may be waiting to see what Bernie does in the far-left lane. So there are a number of contingent names on this list who won’t end up running, and we’ll just have to wait and see. There won’t be 16 credible candidates a year from now when the primaries start—though there may be a decent flock. 

Elizabeth Warren still has the pole position, partly because she’s gotten out early and I think a woman will have a great opportunity this year. (It will, as always, be harder for a woman to win the presidency, but we’re talking the Dem nom here). Her announcement bid was also pitch-perfect. From there, this just reflects relative power as the candidates position themselves in the early days of the campaign.

This list has shrunk from 20 names as some folks have opted out (or in the case of Seth Moulton, spent the last two months disqualifying himself). Finally, I’m leaving Stacey Abrams on the list until she says she’s not running. If we think Beto is a credible candidate because he finished close in TX, surely we must acknowledge that an incandescent talent like Abrams, who almost certainly had the vote stolen in GA, should also be considered.

First Tier
1. Elizabeth Warren (previously 1)*
2. Beto O’Rourke (8)
3. Kamala Harris (3)
4. Cory Booker (2)
5. Bernie Sanders (4)

Second Tier
6. Sherrod Brown (5)
7. Amy Klobuchar (10)
8. John Hickenlooper (6)
9. Joe Biden (11)
10. Kirsten Gillibrand (12)

Dark Horses
11. Jeff Merkley (16)
12. Eric Garcetti (14)
13. Jay Inslee (17)*
14. Julián Castro (15)
15. Mitch Landrieu (7)
16. Stacey Abrams (20)

Not Ranked
Eric Holder, Michael Bloomberg, Steve Bullock, Terry McAuliffe, Howard Schultz, Tom Steyer, John Delaney*, Tulsi Gabbard, Tim Ryan, John Kerry

___________________________
*Announced they’re running

[Full disclosure: The candidates I’m most excited about include Gillibrand, Warren, Brown, Merkley, and Abrams, but I’m cool with anyone on this list—even (barely) Joe Biden.]