Hot Take #2: Electability

This concept has become the watchword for the 2020 nomination, and it is presented as a knowable, measurable concept. In fact, it is a circular notion depending on a tenuous sense of human behavior, as insubstantial and impermanent as a wisp of smoke. And many of the factors that compose the “electability” equation turn out to be dubious, wrong, or premature.

In the very early stages of a campaign, name recognition is the dominant factor. There are times when a candidate is so overwhelmingly favored they ride the name recognition to the nomination—Gore in 2000, Clinton in 2016. But just as often, the leader 18 months before an election goes on to flame out. Rudy Giuliani led the polls in 2008; Jeb! was the odds-on fave in 2016. But campaigns reveal a great deal about candidates, and often someone unknown or unexpected emerges—Carter, Obama, Trump. In retrospect there’s a logic to how candidates wax and wane, but in the event, very serious people were discussing how Rudy and Jeb were unstoppable.

We overvalue the recent past and tend to overrate the factors relevant in one election. The past two presidents are perfect examples. Following Obama’s election, “electability” was defined by nonwhite voters, women, and young voters. He tapped into a new vein of votes and won huge victories. (Obama got 6.5m more votes in 2008 than Trump did in 2016.) The GOP spent much of 2013-14 trying to figure out how to appeal beyond their white base. Rubio, if you’ll recall, was regarded as a perfect candidate to expand the base.

Trump went exactly the other direction, running on a platform of white restoration. That, combined with the fact that he beat a woman, has meant the media have spent the past 2.5 years laser-focused on the plight of rural white men. It has been remarkable how quickly Dems and the media internalized this narrative, and have spent so much of their time hand-wringing about how to win this demographic. The lessons of the Obama coalition seem to have been entirely forgotten. (If the Dem manages to win 70m votes in 2020 as Obama did, it’s hard to imagine a way Trump can cobble together enough white dudes to beat her.)

So of course, absent much other information, voters in the Spring of 2019 find working-class white dude Joe Biden compelling: he seems to tick the boxes of what electability means now.
Finally, when the question comes down to a choice between a safe candidate and an exciting one, “electable” always means safe. But safe candidates have a terrible record! If you go back to ‘72, the first open election in the modern primary era, safe candidates have routinely gotten beaten. McGovern, in that first instance, is the exception, but look at the performance of safe versus exciting candidates in open (non-incumbet races).

1976: Carter, who beat ultimate safe candidate Jerry Ford.
1980: Actor Ronald Reagan beat safe alternative GHW Bush and crushed the incumbent.
1984: Dems nominate former veep Mondale over exciting choices like Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson and get waxed.
1988: GOP goes safe with Bush and Dems choose Dukakis over Jackson and a field of safe, dull men. A safe versus safe election Bush wins. (Neither candidate was liked and 1988 saw the lowest turnout of any open-seat election in a century.)
1992: Unknown Clinton beats some old hands and sails to the White House.
1996: GOP nominate ultra safe war horse Bob Dole, who gets crushed.
2000: In a battle of safe choices, W emerges and Gore “loses.” (It’s another low-turnout year.)
2004: Dem voters figure a safe choice like John Kerry, a decorated war hero, will do better against a wartime incumbent than the exciting Howard Dean. Works out beautifully.
2008: Exciting Obama emerges out of nowhere and crushes Meet The Press’s fave candidate John McCain.
2012: GOP plays it safe with Romney, makes no difference.
2016: Obviously, GOP does not play it safe, wins. Hard to figure whether Dems played it safe or not in nominating the first woman in the republic’s 240 years, but Jewish socialist Bernie Sanders was definitely not the safe choice, either.

I am absolutely not convinced Joe Biden can win the nomination. The actual primary will reveal all the ways in which he’s a poor candidate—a two-time washout who hasn’t made a ripple in either of his first runs. He’s been hiding from voters and reporters and has *still* managed to botch the easiest gimme in Democratic politics (abortion) while reviving questions of his plagiarisms past. But were he to win, he would fit in perfectly with safely “electable” duds like Dole, Gore, Kerry, and McCain.

Fortunately, the contest still has to happen, and the Dems have at least five very smart, very capable politicians looking to make themselves look electable. Biden will have to prove he deserves the nomination; he won’t win it by default. I suspect exciting candidates like Warren, Booker, Harris, Buttigieg, or Sanders will emerge and energize Dems more than their fears will drive them to stick with Biden. We’ll see—