It’s
been a couple months, so let’s check in on the Democratic candidates in
this lull before the first debates (June 26 and 27). When I first
started doing these right after the midterms, I put nearly twenty names
on a list of candidates with a plausible path to the nomination. That
dropped to sixteen, then thirteen, and now (barely) eight. Here they
are, with polling averages and trend directions as well as Q1
fundraising totals:
We have an effective five-way race among equals, a couple folks who could catch fire if circumstances allow, and one who hasn’t quite fallen off the map. All the other candidates are below 1%. Normally, I’d keep an open mind about distant longshots, but the giant field has made the possibility of any of them emerging a fantastical prospect. With a field this size, there’s just no chance for them to get any oxygen to feed the campaign, nor any overlooked state to work and try to build a beachhead. Most are, in fact, suffocating instead and watching their numbers dwindle.
Among that top tier, it’s difficult to game out how things will unfold. We have yet to see fundraising totals for Q2, and those could be revealing. All the candidates are depending on the debates to raise their profiles (except Biden, who hopes they solidify his standing and clear some of the field), but they’re likely to accelerate current trends. Kamala and Bernie may have the most on the line. Both campaigns are flagging and they need to excite voters sticking with Biden or looking at Warren or Buttigieg.
The recent Selzer poll in Iowa is illustrative of how fast this field is likely to narrow. In order to get any delegates, candidates must hit the 15% threshold. In that poll, only three candidates did (Biden at 24%, Bernie at 16%, and Warren at 15%). Others may win “moral” victories, but those ultimately don’t help a campaign much.
A few final notes. The field is dynamic, so the success of one candidate will come at the expense of others. As an example, take the two elderly white New Englanders who are running as progressive champions. They are fighting for the same voters. In another case, Harris and Booker were both eyeing the rich slate early-primary southern states, but for the moment, Black voters are sticking with Biden.
The primary calendar is structured in a way to weight Black voters, and they will decide who gets out to a big lead. Harris, a California native, was in the best position to capitalize on the calendar by winning over Black and home-state voters, but her cautious campaign has undermined that. A big question is whether and how the candidates will convince Black voters that they, not Biden, are the candidate to take on Trump. When Obama won massively white Iowa in 2008, he convinced Black voters that whites would vote for him, and ride their support to the presidency. Biden will be doing everything he can to hold these voters, and others will be trying to win them over. That is the most important fight in the nomination.
The fun thing is that the real race is finally about to start. Debates are the most clarifying element of a campaign, the opportunity casual voters have to see the candidates in action. So far most casual voters haven’t tuned in, so we’ve been in a holding pattern dictated by name recognition. Soon that will change—
First Tier
Elizabeth Warren (12% ↑) $17m
Joe Biden (32% ← →) $N/A
Kamala Harris (7% ↓) $13m
Bernie Sanders (17% ↓) $21m
Pete Buttigieg (8% ↑) $7m
Second Tier
Beto O’Rourke (4% ↓) $9m
Cory Booker (2% ← →) $8m
Third Tier
Amy Klobuchar (1% ↓) $8m
We have an effective five-way race among equals, a couple folks who could catch fire if circumstances allow, and one who hasn’t quite fallen off the map. All the other candidates are below 1%. Normally, I’d keep an open mind about distant longshots, but the giant field has made the possibility of any of them emerging a fantastical prospect. With a field this size, there’s just no chance for them to get any oxygen to feed the campaign, nor any overlooked state to work and try to build a beachhead. Most are, in fact, suffocating instead and watching their numbers dwindle.
Among that top tier, it’s difficult to game out how things will unfold. We have yet to see fundraising totals for Q2, and those could be revealing. All the candidates are depending on the debates to raise their profiles (except Biden, who hopes they solidify his standing and clear some of the field), but they’re likely to accelerate current trends. Kamala and Bernie may have the most on the line. Both campaigns are flagging and they need to excite voters sticking with Biden or looking at Warren or Buttigieg.
The recent Selzer poll in Iowa is illustrative of how fast this field is likely to narrow. In order to get any delegates, candidates must hit the 15% threshold. In that poll, only three candidates did (Biden at 24%, Bernie at 16%, and Warren at 15%). Others may win “moral” victories, but those ultimately don’t help a campaign much.
A few final notes. The field is dynamic, so the success of one candidate will come at the expense of others. As an example, take the two elderly white New Englanders who are running as progressive champions. They are fighting for the same voters. In another case, Harris and Booker were both eyeing the rich slate early-primary southern states, but for the moment, Black voters are sticking with Biden.
The primary calendar is structured in a way to weight Black voters, and they will decide who gets out to a big lead. Harris, a California native, was in the best position to capitalize on the calendar by winning over Black and home-state voters, but her cautious campaign has undermined that. A big question is whether and how the candidates will convince Black voters that they, not Biden, are the candidate to take on Trump. When Obama won massively white Iowa in 2008, he convinced Black voters that whites would vote for him, and ride their support to the presidency. Biden will be doing everything he can to hold these voters, and others will be trying to win them over. That is the most important fight in the nomination.
The fun thing is that the real race is finally about to start. Debates are the most clarifying element of a campaign, the opportunity casual voters have to see the candidates in action. So far most casual voters haven’t tuned in, so we’ve been in a holding pattern dictated by name recognition. Soon that will change—
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