The
latest Des Moines Register/Ann Selzer poll is out in Iowa, and it seems
like a great inflection point to consider where the Dem candidates are
sitting. (I am enjoying a relaxed Sunday morning in Antwerp thinking
about something other than beer—politics, joy!) In that poll, it’s
Warren (22%), Biden (20%), Sanders (11%), Buttigieg (9%), and Harris
(6%).
The last time I did one of these things was early April, which was still quite early in the race (Biden hadn’t yet formally announced). Beto had had his little flurry, which looked real in the way Buttigieg’s would turn out to be, and we assumed folks like Booker and Klobuchar would be strong candidates. I ranked them like this, based not on polling but my judgment about who could win the race. First Tier: Kamala Harris (1), Bernie Sanders (2), Beto O’Rourke (3), Elizabeth Warren (4). Second Tier: Pete Buttigieg (5), Cory Booker (6), Amy Klobuchar (7), Joe Biden (8).
Obviously, things have changed tremendously. I have continued to be bearish on Biden’s prospects, but there’s no way to dismiss him now. Kamala I overrated based on the primary schedule and her native charisma. In the event she’s run one of the worst campaigns I can remember, playing defense, equivocating, and somehow also managing to appear aloof and even cold.
My take now is that it’s a four-person race, but each candidate has at some liabilities they’ll have to overcome. Instead of ranking I’ll give each a percentage likelihood of winning:
If everything weren’t so consequential, it would be fascinating at a political level. Warren has clearly given voters the clearest message and reason to vote for her. In any other year, her abundant charisma, clever issue-framing, and exceptional policy platform (whether you agree with it or not, it’s specific and comprehensive) would carry the day. But she has done an absolutely crap job of reaching out to nonwhite voters. That’s a big part of politics, and it’s why Bernie lost last year. It’s not enough to offer a platform you believe will appeal to all, you actually have to do the legwork of building those coalitions. She hasn’t, and the Black vote is the sole reason Biden is in a strong position to win it.
However, winning Iowa would be a huge boost, especially because she’d be in a great position to win New Hampshire. Warren in a dead heat in the polls with Biden is a pick ‘em. Warren in a dead heat plus the two first states? That’d be huge.
Biden’s biggest weakness is of course Biden. He’s a bad candidate. This is reflected by the softness of his numbers; while he’s the front-runner and doing well in polls against Trump, people are willing to stick with him. But he hasn’t done anything to make a pro-Biden case. Few of his supporters look at his candidacy and platform and think: yeah, baby, that’s what I want! But his strengths are considerable. If he wins Iowa, New Hampshire wouldn’t matter nearly as much with Black-majority South Carolina in the wings (and with Iowa, he might win NH). On the other hand, his support is very weak and provisional. People support him because he looks like a winner. If support reaches a critical low point, it could completely collapse.
Bernie has always been in the opposite boat—his support isn’t as broad, but it’s a mile deep. Unfortunately for him, it’s becoming apparent that it’s narrower than he hoped, as Warren continues to chip into it. The thing that limits Bernie’s appeal is exactly why that minority like him: he’s a fiery idealist (detractors would say dogmatist) who has never compromised. Unlike Warren, he’s done the coalitional work to appeal to Black voters, though, and would be broadly acceptable to most Dems.
The challenge for an old guy whose politics haven’t changed in 50 years is figuring out how to create new interest in the campaign. I think his biggest hope is seeing Biden and Warren falter. This isn’t a bad strategy—a lot of campaigns have been won that way! Iowa is a big deal, though, and the new poll isn’t good news for him.
Last is Kamala, whose built-in advantages offset her poor campaign and poll weakness in a way no other candidate can claim. If she could put her campaign back on track, these strengths would give her huge help. (Half the states voting on Super Tuesday have large Black populations, her home state of CA is early, and SC—60% Black—is the third to vote.) But she’s going to have to completely abandon the timid, don’t-lose approach and give voters a reason to give her another look.
It’s hard to see any other candidate emerging. Like, really hard. Mayor Pete will not get the Black vote; even winning Iowa would be a dead end. Klobuchar is in the same boat. Booker has run a great campaign but can’t break through, which is bad news—what more can you do when you’ve left it all on the field already and are polling at 2%? Yang, Gabbard, O’Rourke, Castro—they either have extremely low ceilings or just aren’t getting it done.
Then again, it’s 2019, so Marianne Williamson will obviously win.
______________________
Finally, just a note on probability. I give no one even a coin’s-toss chance of winning. The difference between Warren and Biden are marginal, but in either case, you’d bet on the field against them.
The last time I did one of these things was early April, which was still quite early in the race (Biden hadn’t yet formally announced). Beto had had his little flurry, which looked real in the way Buttigieg’s would turn out to be, and we assumed folks like Booker and Klobuchar would be strong candidates. I ranked them like this, based not on polling but my judgment about who could win the race. First Tier: Kamala Harris (1), Bernie Sanders (2), Beto O’Rourke (3), Elizabeth Warren (4). Second Tier: Pete Buttigieg (5), Cory Booker (6), Amy Klobuchar (7), Joe Biden (8).
Obviously, things have changed tremendously. I have continued to be bearish on Biden’s prospects, but there’s no way to dismiss him now. Kamala I overrated based on the primary schedule and her native charisma. In the event she’s run one of the worst campaigns I can remember, playing defense, equivocating, and somehow also managing to appear aloof and even cold.
My take now is that it’s a four-person race, but each candidate has at some liabilities they’ll have to overcome. Instead of ranking I’ll give each a percentage likelihood of winning:
- Warren (35%)
- Biden (30%)
- Sanders (20%)
- Harris (10%)
- Some other candidate (5%)
If everything weren’t so consequential, it would be fascinating at a political level. Warren has clearly given voters the clearest message and reason to vote for her. In any other year, her abundant charisma, clever issue-framing, and exceptional policy platform (whether you agree with it or not, it’s specific and comprehensive) would carry the day. But she has done an absolutely crap job of reaching out to nonwhite voters. That’s a big part of politics, and it’s why Bernie lost last year. It’s not enough to offer a platform you believe will appeal to all, you actually have to do the legwork of building those coalitions. She hasn’t, and the Black vote is the sole reason Biden is in a strong position to win it.
However, winning Iowa would be a huge boost, especially because she’d be in a great position to win New Hampshire. Warren in a dead heat in the polls with Biden is a pick ‘em. Warren in a dead heat plus the two first states? That’d be huge.
Biden’s biggest weakness is of course Biden. He’s a bad candidate. This is reflected by the softness of his numbers; while he’s the front-runner and doing well in polls against Trump, people are willing to stick with him. But he hasn’t done anything to make a pro-Biden case. Few of his supporters look at his candidacy and platform and think: yeah, baby, that’s what I want! But his strengths are considerable. If he wins Iowa, New Hampshire wouldn’t matter nearly as much with Black-majority South Carolina in the wings (and with Iowa, he might win NH). On the other hand, his support is very weak and provisional. People support him because he looks like a winner. If support reaches a critical low point, it could completely collapse.
Bernie has always been in the opposite boat—his support isn’t as broad, but it’s a mile deep. Unfortunately for him, it’s becoming apparent that it’s narrower than he hoped, as Warren continues to chip into it. The thing that limits Bernie’s appeal is exactly why that minority like him: he’s a fiery idealist (detractors would say dogmatist) who has never compromised. Unlike Warren, he’s done the coalitional work to appeal to Black voters, though, and would be broadly acceptable to most Dems.
The challenge for an old guy whose politics haven’t changed in 50 years is figuring out how to create new interest in the campaign. I think his biggest hope is seeing Biden and Warren falter. This isn’t a bad strategy—a lot of campaigns have been won that way! Iowa is a big deal, though, and the new poll isn’t good news for him.
Last is Kamala, whose built-in advantages offset her poor campaign and poll weakness in a way no other candidate can claim. If she could put her campaign back on track, these strengths would give her huge help. (Half the states voting on Super Tuesday have large Black populations, her home state of CA is early, and SC—60% Black—is the third to vote.) But she’s going to have to completely abandon the timid, don’t-lose approach and give voters a reason to give her another look.
It’s hard to see any other candidate emerging. Like, really hard. Mayor Pete will not get the Black vote; even winning Iowa would be a dead end. Klobuchar is in the same boat. Booker has run a great campaign but can’t break through, which is bad news—what more can you do when you’ve left it all on the field already and are polling at 2%? Yang, Gabbard, O’Rourke, Castro—they either have extremely low ceilings or just aren’t getting it done.
Then again, it’s 2019, so Marianne Williamson will obviously win.
______________________
Finally, just a note on probability. I give no one even a coin’s-toss chance of winning. The difference between Warren and Biden are marginal, but in either case, you’d bet on the field against them.
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