Before Joe Biden won South Carolina, it was inconceivable that he’d exit Super Tuesday with the most delegates, but that’s just what he did. He now has 453 to Bernie’s 382. That’s almost certainly the election. Bernie’s strategy involved building a big lead on Super Tuesday and holding it as Biden emerged as the consensus alternative. Now that he’s trailing, it’s extremely hard to see his path to the nomination. Barring a (certainly possible) disqualifying gaffe, we’re riding into battle with Joe Biden. Wow.
We always look for historical precedent to make sense of elections, but
until this morning, the 2008 GOP race didn’t seem like a very useful
analogue—but now 2020 seems like an echo of that. An old warhorse past
his prime, looking like he had tried one too many times for President
who managed to miraculously Talley after voting started.
In 2008, McCain was an early front-runner who faded badly down the stretch. By the end of the Iowa caucuses, he appeared to be done. Like Biden, McCain finished a distant fourth there. He did bounce back momentarily in NH, always his stronghold, but it wasn’t until a win in SC that he re-emerged as a credible front-runner. (Sound familiar?) That led to a big win on Super Tuesday that put him over the top.
There was even a similarity in the approach of one of his rivals. Rudy Giuliani, who spent months as the front-runner, settled on the genius strategy of waiting until Florida to contest a state. Like Bloomberg, who also attempted the same maneuver, it was a high-profile dud.
McCain had to run against a transcendent talent after eight years of his party’s wars, in the midst of a blossoming economic collapse driven by GOP policies. But similarly, he was selling personal decency and moderate politics, was a favorite of the media and considered acceptable as a crossover candidate—and therefore failed to excite his base. Hard to draw too many conclusions, though, given how different the circumstances of the general election were compared to this year.
Biden is a creaky old man whose mind is not strong or clear; he doesn’t excite young voters or the base of his own party, and he is about to face an eight-month onslaught of attacks and dirty tricks. The only way he’s getting across the finish line ahead of Trump is with a *huge* amount of help from his friends. We’re all team Biden, now.
In 2008, McCain was an early front-runner who faded badly down the stretch. By the end of the Iowa caucuses, he appeared to be done. Like Biden, McCain finished a distant fourth there. He did bounce back momentarily in NH, always his stronghold, but it wasn’t until a win in SC that he re-emerged as a credible front-runner. (Sound familiar?) That led to a big win on Super Tuesday that put him over the top.
There was even a similarity in the approach of one of his rivals. Rudy Giuliani, who spent months as the front-runner, settled on the genius strategy of waiting until Florida to contest a state. Like Bloomberg, who also attempted the same maneuver, it was a high-profile dud.
McCain had to run against a transcendent talent after eight years of his party’s wars, in the midst of a blossoming economic collapse driven by GOP policies. But similarly, he was selling personal decency and moderate politics, was a favorite of the media and considered acceptable as a crossover candidate—and therefore failed to excite his base. Hard to draw too many conclusions, though, given how different the circumstances of the general election were compared to this year.
Biden is a creaky old man whose mind is not strong or clear; he doesn’t excite young voters or the base of his own party, and he is about to face an eight-month onslaught of attacks and dirty tricks. The only way he’s getting across the finish line ahead of Trump is with a *huge* amount of help from his friends. We’re all team Biden, now.
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