Trump’s approval has fallen within a fairly narrow range of 37% at the
low (Dec 2018, just after the election) to 46% in April this year. He’s
currently at 41%, albeit with a disapproval at near all-time highs
(55%). While that approval is contained within a historically tight
band, there’s clearly a big difference between 46% and 37%. He “won” the
election in 2016 by cobbling together that 46% in all the right places.
In polling aggregate (all these numbers are from 538), Biden leads at
the moment 50.5% to 43.1%. (Elections differ from polling in that
they’re binary; one can’t vote for “not sure.”)
When we look at the electoral college, polling is just as bad. Attached is a table showing state polling aggregates in 17 the states that may be competitive in 2020. Biden leads in fifteen, trailing Trump by less than a point in TX and IA. There are a couple ways to think about these. State polls are often less accurate than national polls, so maybe they’re not reliable. Let’s imagine that there’s a 6% polling error—how would that affect the election? Well, if it went in Trump’s favor, it would still result in a Biden win, 288-250. But errors can go in both directions. If it went in Biden’s favor, he’d win by (at least) a 412-126 margin. (A six percent polling error is a big one, too.)
Polls are snapshots in time. They’re predictive capacity is lower the further out from an election we are, and 4+ months is a long time. But it’s not *that* long. Given Trump’s disregard for democracy and the dangers of election funny business, Dems will remain scared and morose until Biden is sworn in. I feel them! But imagine how morose we’d be if the tables were turned? These are Mondale/Dukakis numbers. It’s a moment of huge turmoil and volatility, but it’s safe to say that Donald Trump approaches the election facing massive headwinds.
When we look at the electoral college, polling is just as bad. Attached is a table showing state polling aggregates in 17 the states that may be competitive in 2020. Biden leads in fifteen, trailing Trump by less than a point in TX and IA. There are a couple ways to think about these. State polls are often less accurate than national polls, so maybe they’re not reliable. Let’s imagine that there’s a 6% polling error—how would that affect the election? Well, if it went in Trump’s favor, it would still result in a Biden win, 288-250. But errors can go in both directions. If it went in Biden’s favor, he’d win by (at least) a 412-126 margin. (A six percent polling error is a big one, too.)
Polls are snapshots in time. They’re predictive capacity is lower the further out from an election we are, and 4+ months is a long time. But it’s not *that* long. Given Trump’s disregard for democracy and the dangers of election funny business, Dems will remain scared and morose until Biden is sworn in. I feel them! But imagine how morose we’d be if the tables were turned? These are Mondale/Dukakis numbers. It’s a moment of huge turmoil and volatility, but it’s safe to say that Donald Trump approaches the election facing massive headwinds.
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