Draft Durant

Sometime around 4:30 today (Oregon time), the Blazers will draft Greg Oden as the overall first pick in the draft. Their phony campaign to elicit input was pure PR--they knew they were taking Oden the second Stern announced who got the pick. But, just to go on record, the Blazers should take Durant. (Keep in mind that last year I urged them to take LaMarcus or Brandon Roy--they took both--and those turned out smashing successes. So I'm riding a wave here.)

The main reason people want Oden is because he's a center, and ever since George Mikan, general managers have believed that height equals domination. But that doesn't appear to be true. Recent decades have been defined by hybrid players--Bird and Magic to begin with, then Jordan, and now LeBron. These are guys who don't fit neatly into the guard-guard-forward-forward-center schemes coaches draw up. Of all the great centers of recent vintage, only Shaq, who has taken all three of his teams to the finals, can truly be called dominating. Patrick Ewing couldn't get it done, Hakeem couldn't get it done alone, and Tim Duncan, whom height fans always cite, isn't a true center. (Dirk Nowitski is a seven footer, too.) If centers of the old mold were still so valuable, why can't Yao Ming dominate?

(As a matter of economics, centers are definitely a dud. People want to see running and scoring, not standing and dunking. All the exciting players in the NBA since the seventies have been guards or small forwards. If you want to pack people into seats across the league, get a fun team together.)

Which brings me to Durant. He's just two inches shorter than Oden, but he shoots 47% from the field. He can shoot the long ball and he can drive and post up. He's going to be unguardable. Add to that the fact that he outrebounded Oden over the year (11 per game versus nine and a half), had two blocks and two steals a game, and he's a complete package. He's got to bulk up, and there will be a transition period, but his work ethic is legendary--he'll train harder than any rookie in the league. Expect him to instantly electrify Seattle.

Oden's cool, and arguably a better fit for Portland, so I don't have any problem with the pick. (Portland's a great fit for Oden, too; a young team to mature with, a great teaching coach, amazing fans.) But amid all the delirium over Durant, it seems like someone ought to point out the alternate view: Durant's the better player and would make a better pick.

[Sports]

NBA Draft.

There are three great prospects in the NBA draft, and the Portland Trailblazers pick fourth. Given our current luck and leadership, I have a bad feeling about how those facts align. But nevermind, let's think positively and hope one of these guys is still on the board:

LaMarcus Aldridge, 6-11, 235, Soph, Texas
Aldridge has a few things going for him--he's big (and getting bigger), he's a hard worker, and by all accounts, he's a great guy. Upside: could use a franchize big man. Downside: with Joel Pryzbilla, Blazers have a serviceable big man; Aldridge is not going to be an impact player in year one.

Brandon Roy, 6-foot-6, 210 pounds, Sr., Washington
Roy is a talented guard who could immediately step in and play. At 6' 6", he has the versatility to play three positions and would be able to come in and make an immediate contribution. He's from Washington, so Blazer fans would welcome him as a hometown kid. As a senior, he's one of the more predictable prospects in the draft. Upside: could be an immediate spark and offense to a woeful team. Downside: not much.

Adam Morrison, 6-8, 200, Jr., Gonzaga
Ah, the 'stache. Ain't no one in the draft a bigger wild card than Morrison. He's got diabetes and frequently has to give himself injections in the game. He doesn't appear to know that basketball players sometimes play defense. He is enormously popular in Stumptown. Oh, and he's also freaky good putting the ball in the hole. The question is this: is he the next Larry Bird or Pete Maravich. No one has the vaguest idea. Upside: could be one of the great shooters in NBA history; very competitive. Downside: what happens when he plays in the NBA, not the West Coast Conference?

There also may be a strange silver lining in picking fourth. For some reason, players picked fourth tend to make it as pros, and some have been great. Maybe all the gambles are done by that slot, so what shows up are quality players who don't flame out (what that means vis a vis Morrison I'll leave to you). Anyway, here's a list dating back to 1991:

Chris Paul
Shaun Livingston
Chris Bosh
Drew Gooden
Eddy Curry
Marcus Fizer
Lamar Odom
Antawn Jamison
Antonio Daniels
Stephon Marbury
Rasheed Wallace
Donyell Marshall
Jamal Mashburn
Jim Jackson
Dikembe Mutombo

I'd be sorely tempted by The 'Stache, but if Roy were still on the board, I'd probably take him instead. In about four hours we'll know.

[Update: Two out of three! Hoy, what a day! And Charlotte has reportedly "lusted since February" over Adam Morrison, so good for him, too.]