Thursday, July 10, 2008

Intensity Gap: 51% of GOP Dissatisfied with McCain

As a follow-up to the post below, Pew has a new poll out on intensity, which bolsters the case.
The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall -- perhaps much higher than in previous elections -- as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start of the campaign, Democrats enjoy a substantial engagement advantage over Republicans that may significantly alter the composition of the November electorate.
And what an advantage. Pew asked a series of questions to judge intensity, and Dems have a huge lead. In particular, one statistic absolutely leaps off the page. Less than half the Republicans are satisfied with their candidate (49%), as opposed to 77% of Dems. Have a look:

Given quite a lot of thought to the election:

_______2004_______2008
GOP
_____61%________72%
Dems
____59%________77%
Change__-2%________+5%


More interested than four years ago:

_______2004_______2008
GOP
_____48%________51%
Dems
____52%________71%
Change__+4%_______+20%


Following election news closely:

_______2004_______2008
GOP
_____34%________44%
Dems
____33%________55%
Change__-1%_______+11%


Satisfied with candidate:

_______2004_______2008
GOP
_____75%________49%
Dems
____63%________74%
Change_-12%_______+25%


Really matters who wins:

_______2004_______2008
GOP
_____72%________62%
Dems
____67%________70%
Change__-5%________+8%

Fascinating stuff....

1 comment:

crallspace said...

51 and 49 are eerily common numbers when it comes to divide, politically or the country as a whole. I would guess that more than 51% are not mCSame fans.