The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall -- perhaps much higher than in previous elections -- as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start of the campaign, Democrats enjoy a substantial engagement advantage over Republicans that may significantly alter the composition of the November electorate.And what an advantage. Pew asked a series of questions to judge intensity, and Dems have a huge lead. In particular, one statistic absolutely leaps off the page. Less than half the Republicans are satisfied with their candidate (49%), as opposed to 77% of Dems. Have a look:
Given quite a lot of thought to the election:
_______2004_______2008
GOP_____61%________72%
Dems____59%________77%
Change__-2%________+5%
More interested than four years ago:
_______2004_______2008
GOP_____48%________51%
Dems____52%________71%
Change__+4%_______+20%
Following election news closely:
_______2004_______2008
GOP_____34%________44%
Dems____33%________55%
Change__-1%_______+11%
Satisfied with candidate:
_______2004_______2008
GOP_____75%________49%
Dems____63%________74%
Change_-12%_______+25%
Really matters who wins:
_______2004_______2008
GOP_____72%________62%
Dems____67%________70%
Change__-5%________+8%
Fascinating stuff....
1 comment:
51 and 49 are eerily common numbers when it comes to divide, politically or the country as a whole. I would guess that more than 51% are not mCSame fans.
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