Polls Not as Bad as They Look

Feeling a little anxious that Obama's in apparent freefall in the polls lately? I have been. Fortunately, Five Thirty Eight has our back:

But focusing on only the last month risks failing to see the forest for the trees. Fundamentally, the news is that Obama is ahead in all three states -- two of which are states that Democrats have made a habit of losing. Moreover, if you compare his performance not just to the most recent number, but to all other instances of the Quinnipiac polls -- this is how our model looks at things -- the results are pretty decent for him:

Month      FL       OH       PA
Feb        M+2      M+2      O+1
March      M+9      O+1      O+4
April      M+1      M+1      O+9
May        M+4      M+4      O+6
June       O+4      O+6      O+12
July       O+2      O+2      O+7

See, if you skip June and look at the trendlines going backward, Obama's actually continuing to make ground. Breathe, breathe...