A whole bunch of random political thoughts on a Sunday morning.
1. On impeachment. Although the Dems are constructing a great case for the Ukraine deal, I believe this is an error. If you’re going to tilt at this windmill knowing fully that Trump won’t be removed, why on earth would you constrain the scope? Mueller identified 11 (!) cases of obstruction—some clearly in the public record. Trump has been self-dealing and violating the emoluments clause, another massive area of corruption. The violations are extensive. The upshot is this: if you’re impeaching him solely to make a point, make the damn point. Create a *full* case for why he should have been removed for the historical record. Otherwise you’re in effect laundering all those crimes by accusing him of just one lesser charge. (Among his crimes, can anyone argue this is the worst?)
2. One of the first charges should be Trump’s lying. This is perhaps his most corrupt act. It undermines the very foundation of a functional government and its residue will be the most difficult thing to clean up. Why on earth would future candidates not just lie their asses off?
3. There’s quite a bit of commentary about “liberal” versus “moderate” Dems. These terms have very little meaning to most voters. Functionally, these terms are heuristics that mean two things to voters: electability and fringiness. People don’t want someone perceived as too far outside the mainstream (we’re a big tent party, after all), and they want someone who can beat Trump. There’s a self-reinforcing feedback loop that “liberal” means fringe, which means scary and unelectable. And that’s all it means.
What these terms have nothing to do with is policy. Americans have no idea what liberal means in terms of public policy and in fact are already quite liberal. Most Dems support universal healthcare of some variety. They have very firm views about protecting minority rights. Unions are again popular. They support aggressive action on climate change. And so on. The idea that most Dems want the Washington consensus regarding taxes (should be very low), spending (should be slashed, especially on “entitlements”), and immediate action on the deficit is laughable. It’s preferable to very, very few Americans, what to speak of Dems. The positions the average Dem holds is quite liberal, particularly with regard to the politics of the past 40 years, and the party is already unified on them.
4. It is therefor incredibly amusing that Mike Bloomberg, looking at the primary, thinks: what Dems are clamoring for is an autocratic billionaire who is principally concerned with making change on the margins so long as the rich are left unscathed. It’s my time! I hope he does run, because making billionaires cry isn’t fun only for Elizabeth Warren.
5. I actually like Deval Patrick, but he’s also suffering some kind of bizarre delusion that makes it impossible for him to see that candidacies like his own—Booker’s, O’Rourke’s, and Harris’s—have been roundly rejected by voters.
6. Cory Booker has run a fantastic campaign. His failure to launch is the biggest surprise to me in the primaries. *Especially* once Kamala tanked. (She’s run a uniquely terrible campaign and her crash is entirely predictable based on her performance. It’s why long primaries are actually good: you get to see how effective candidates are. Booker, by contrast, has been stellar, and I mean just in political terms, whatever else you think of his politics.)
7. Not a Mayor Pete fan. He’s exposed himself to be mansplainy, slippery, and nasty. That he’s only been an average mayor in the one relevant position he’s held, and managed to alienate a large chunk of his base at home, ain’t a great credential. Pass.
8. Biden may win this thing after all. If Buttigieg wins IA, it will seriously blunt Warren’s challenge (In a poll today, Pete was leading). If he finishes credibly in NH and wins NV and SC (he’s way ahead in the polls), Biden will be poised for a massive landslide in the heavily Black states of Super Tuesday. He could find himself the presumptive nominee by early March.
9. The Hunter Biden slanders have clearly hardened and shored up Biden's support.
10. I remain incredibly pessimistic about the future of the US, but have also started to come to some equanimity in dealing with this reality. We must find a space of mental health in all of this; constantly pouring toxicity into our minds is not a good response to the era.
1. On impeachment. Although the Dems are constructing a great case for the Ukraine deal, I believe this is an error. If you’re going to tilt at this windmill knowing fully that Trump won’t be removed, why on earth would you constrain the scope? Mueller identified 11 (!) cases of obstruction—some clearly in the public record. Trump has been self-dealing and violating the emoluments clause, another massive area of corruption. The violations are extensive. The upshot is this: if you’re impeaching him solely to make a point, make the damn point. Create a *full* case for why he should have been removed for the historical record. Otherwise you’re in effect laundering all those crimes by accusing him of just one lesser charge. (Among his crimes, can anyone argue this is the worst?)
2. One of the first charges should be Trump’s lying. This is perhaps his most corrupt act. It undermines the very foundation of a functional government and its residue will be the most difficult thing to clean up. Why on earth would future candidates not just lie their asses off?
3. There’s quite a bit of commentary about “liberal” versus “moderate” Dems. These terms have very little meaning to most voters. Functionally, these terms are heuristics that mean two things to voters: electability and fringiness. People don’t want someone perceived as too far outside the mainstream (we’re a big tent party, after all), and they want someone who can beat Trump. There’s a self-reinforcing feedback loop that “liberal” means fringe, which means scary and unelectable. And that’s all it means.
What these terms have nothing to do with is policy. Americans have no idea what liberal means in terms of public policy and in fact are already quite liberal. Most Dems support universal healthcare of some variety. They have very firm views about protecting minority rights. Unions are again popular. They support aggressive action on climate change. And so on. The idea that most Dems want the Washington consensus regarding taxes (should be very low), spending (should be slashed, especially on “entitlements”), and immediate action on the deficit is laughable. It’s preferable to very, very few Americans, what to speak of Dems. The positions the average Dem holds is quite liberal, particularly with regard to the politics of the past 40 years, and the party is already unified on them.
4. It is therefor incredibly amusing that Mike Bloomberg, looking at the primary, thinks: what Dems are clamoring for is an autocratic billionaire who is principally concerned with making change on the margins so long as the rich are left unscathed. It’s my time! I hope he does run, because making billionaires cry isn’t fun only for Elizabeth Warren.
5. I actually like Deval Patrick, but he’s also suffering some kind of bizarre delusion that makes it impossible for him to see that candidacies like his own—Booker’s, O’Rourke’s, and Harris’s—have been roundly rejected by voters.
6. Cory Booker has run a fantastic campaign. His failure to launch is the biggest surprise to me in the primaries. *Especially* once Kamala tanked. (She’s run a uniquely terrible campaign and her crash is entirely predictable based on her performance. It’s why long primaries are actually good: you get to see how effective candidates are. Booker, by contrast, has been stellar, and I mean just in political terms, whatever else you think of his politics.)
7. Not a Mayor Pete fan. He’s exposed himself to be mansplainy, slippery, and nasty. That he’s only been an average mayor in the one relevant position he’s held, and managed to alienate a large chunk of his base at home, ain’t a great credential. Pass.
8. Biden may win this thing after all. If Buttigieg wins IA, it will seriously blunt Warren’s challenge (In a poll today, Pete was leading). If he finishes credibly in NH and wins NV and SC (he’s way ahead in the polls), Biden will be poised for a massive landslide in the heavily Black states of Super Tuesday. He could find himself the presumptive nominee by early March.
9. The Hunter Biden slanders have clearly hardened and shored up Biden's support.
10. I remain incredibly pessimistic about the future of the US, but have also started to come to some equanimity in dealing with this reality. We must find a space of mental health in all of this; constantly pouring toxicity into our minds is not a good response to the era.
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