The Election One Week Out

This is an unprecedented election. To date, ~60 million votes have already been cast [update: this morning’s reports vary from 62-66m], and that number could top 100m by Election Day. Election experts expect a huge turnout, most pegging the number at 150-160m—far more than the 137m who turned out in 2016. 

 

The really shocking development is that one party, through state suppression and judicial decree, is actively trying to disqualify enough of the vote so the incumbent can cling to power. No one believes Trump can actually win a majority of votes. “Winning” for the GOP amounts to something between narrowly legal technical victory and a soft coup. There’s no way to predict how that will play out, though Dems are trying to run up the score to make it impossible for the GOP to disqualify enough ballots. Our democracy is at DefCon 😱😱😱 and I suspect most of us are just hoping for a miracle here. 

 

But anyway, we do have polls. These suggest what the actual vote may look like, and that’s important. In 2016, Clinton was sitting on a 5.1% lead in national polls, but it was evaporating quickly. Biden has a stable lead of 9% this morning. More important, of course, are state margins. Below are the current averages in battleground states according to 538. I’ve included all the states Biden and Trump hope to flip. It seems a bit absurd to include South Carolina in the averages, but it represents the same level of reach for Biden (-7.9%) as Minnesota is for Trump. (Biden winning AK and SC is, according to polling, slightly *more* likely than Trump winning NV and MN.)

 

Barring some kind of super bizarre, not-in-modern-polling error, Biden will win WI and MI. The critical state is PA. If Biden wins it (beyond efforts to disqualify votes), he’ll win the election. Everything else will be gravy. The Senate and statehouses are also a huge deal this census-year election, but you can go read 538 if you want more on them.

 

Biden Targets [2016 EV: 232]

MI: +8.3% (16/248)

WI: +7.1% (10/258)

PA: + 5.3% (20/278)

AZ: +2.8% (11/289)

FL: +2.4% (29/318)

NC: +2.4% (15/333)

ME 02: +2.1% (1/334)

GA: +1.2% (16/350)

IA: +1.2% (6/356)

TX: -1.3% (38/394)

OH: -1.6% (18/412)

AK: -6.4% (3/415)

SC: -7.9% (9/423)

 

Trump Targets [2016: 306 EV]

NV: -7.1% (6/312)

MN: -7.9% (10/322)

 

Hang in there, folks, just one 27-month long week to go!