Scrambled Labels

The elevation of Tim Walz to veep has created an excellent opportunity to examine the conservative-moderate-liberal spectrum and what it means in American politics in 2024. 

Despite having one of the most conservative voting records for a Dem while he was in Congress, he's being characterized as a progressive champion today. When reporters like the NYT Reid Epstein tackle his bio, they often detect a whiff of hypocrisy. (Detecting whiffs of Democratic hypocrisy is 97% of what the NYT politics beat constitutes). Here's Epstein:

"Then came 2023. Democrats had won full control of Minnesota’s statehouse for the first time in a decade. Walz pushed through a raft of progressive laws. His state codified abortion rights, enacted new gun control laws, provided free lunch to public-school students and implemented a child tax credit. That cemented his reputation as a progressive populist, a winning label in a party that has spent years anointing centrist candidates for president and vice president."

What counts as "progressive" radicalism is incredibly small beer, though. According to recent surveys (I'm looking at Pew now), the American public favors abortion by a nearly 2-1 margin, 63%-36%. By a similar 2-1 margin, they have favored gun control over the past decade (it bounces around, but the decade-long average, per Gallup, is about 60% more strict gun laws to 30% laws should be the same now). This year, a local poll in Minnesota found that 70% of voters, including 57% of conservatives, approved Walz's free school lunch plan. Finally, voters approve of the child tax credit by a THREE to one margin (75%-25%, roughly speaking, across recent polls). 

Liberals and conservatives do exist, and there are real policy differences behind the two parties. But as the GOP has become a more performative party focused on outrage, "conservative" and "liberal" now have behavioral meanings. This is especially true for the disconnected low-information voter who doesn't follow the issues. For them, conservatism means white-hot fury and grievance, while liberalism represents a kind of milquetoast nanny stateism. "Moderate" means "normal" and is in oppositions to the coded behavior of the two parties. 

You know who seems normal? Tim Walz. Republicans can call him the most dangerous commie since Stalin and it's not going to land because there are all these videos of him out there offering advice about how to fix the plugs on your car. In Minnesota, he doesn't track as "progressive" (the radical end of the liberal spectrum) because he's not a wild-eyed dude. He's a very normal dad-type who sat down and got a bunch of popular stuff done. 

I don't think the average voter has any clue what conservative and liberal mean anymore in a country where the Republicans are the radicals who want to transform America, and Dems are the stodgy traditionalists who want to preserve things and make your life incrementally better. If you want anger and destruction, the GOP is your team. If you think things are fine, or at least good enough, you look to the Dems.  It's a very weird moment.