Thursday, May 18, 2006

[Oregon Primary, Predictions]

Burnishing My Predictive Cred.

In anticipation of Tuesday's primary, I indulged in the painful game of predicting the results. Like a moth drawn to the fire, I can't help myself. So again I predicted and ... wasn't too far off. (!) In Kari Chisholm's punditology challenge, I scored an impressive 25th (of 232 insider types). Then, just before the election, I offered the following predictions (paired with actual results). In only one case was I off on the winner--the others were errors of margin.
Governor
Prediction: Kulongoski 56%, Hill 34%, Sorenson 8%
Saxton 44%, Mannix 35%, Atkinson 30%

Actual: Kulongoski 54%, Hill 29%, Sorenson 16%
Saxton 42%, Mannix 30%, Atkinson 23%

Congress, Dist 2
Prediction: Voison 37%, Davis 32%, Butcher 24%, Silver 7%
Actual: Voison 46%, Davis 27%, Butcher 10%, Silver 16%

City/County
Prediction: Wheeler 57%, Linn 43%
Sten 48%, Burdick 32%, Lister 20%
Saltzman 54%, Fritz 44%

Actual: Wheeler 70%, Linn 23%
Sten 51%, Burdick 27%, Lister 13%
Saltzman 56%, Fritz 25%

State Legislature
Prediction: Jesse Cornett 60%, Rod Monroe 40%
Actual: Jesse Cornett 49%, Rod Monroe 51%

Prediction: Ben Cannon 33%, Mary Lou Hennrich 24%, Mary Botkin, 22%
Actual: Ben Cannon 43%, Mary Lou Hennrich 27%, Mary Botkin, 12%
I may have to retire after this showing.

3 comments:

Torrid said...

Burdick had 27, not 17. :)

Jeff Alworth said...

Whoops, typo. I fixed it--thanks.

Chuck Butcher said...

A 1/3rd turnout by Democrats might skew your predictions a little. Everybody had predicted mid-term fall-off, but holy mackerel...