Hillary Clinton
Polls. Percent of electorate who have heard of this candidate - 98%. Favorable - 58%. Definitely support this candidate - 28%.

Strengths. Hillary will alienate a lot of people the average Dem should easily carry (like me), but she'll win over a number of women who would not otherwise vote for a Democrat. She's positioned herself as tough in foreign policy, and although her vote for the war will hurt her with the base, being a woman may innoculate her against the worst Cleland-ing by the GOP. She will also have all the money she needs. Times two.
Weaknesses. Hillary may win the nomination, but she will never inspire the nation or capture anyone's attention. She is the most highly polished politician since ... well, since Bill. She is vulnerable to an optimistic populist in the Kennedy mode. All three of her serious contenders are trying to play that role, and they will inspire some factions. If any of them catch fire, Hillary could get knocked out early.
Blogger/grassroots Love. On a scale of 1 to 10, where one is Bush and ten is Dean, give Hillary a four.
Barack Obama
Polls. Percent of electorate who have heard of this candidate - 78%. Favorable - 70%. Definitely support this candidate - 22%.

Strengths. Obama's all about optimism, honesty, and down-home familiarity. People like him because they all feel he's like them, but a little smarter and more noble. Americans hate politics, but from time to time, they fall in love with a politician who seems to subvert politics for the good of the country. If politics is about to make a shift toward transparency and away from spin and big money, Obama could really make a move on Hillary.
Weaknesses. Experience, both in office and on the trail. Does he have the foreign policy chops to stand up to Giuliani or McCain--never mind Hillary? He's running an insurgent candidacy like Ross Perot, but will he flame out like Perot did? The next five months are critical for Obama. If he hasn't emerged as the central serious Hillary foe, he may never make it.
Blogger/grassroots Love. A very cautious 7--though that could go sharply in either direction once he rises in national prominence. A better-than-even shot of being the Dean of 2008, both in terms of money and attention.
Tomorrow: Edwards and Gore.
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Sources: Time's Election Guide, Pollster.com, SurveyUSA (NH results), Strategic Vision (Iowa results)
9 comments:
speakin of candidates, isnt it 'jeffie' season?
Sadly our host has opted not to run this time around. It's too bad because I could give the press some really good quotes...
;)
I'm not at all keen on having Clinton on the ticket. I think she would be extremely polarizing and would give the GOP an excuse for another witch hunt. I also don't like the idea of candidates winning office by virtue of their name/family. Political dynasties are bad for democracy. Sadly, neither of those issues speak to how well she would do on the job, but in my estimation, they're deal-breakers. I'd be interested in seeing an Edwards/Obama ticket.
Never use the phrase "witch hunt" when mentioning Hillary.
Oh right. Not a witch hunt. Ummm,a snark hunt?
Jeff,
I might become one of your regular readers after that last column. I think we probably would agree quite a bit in terms of the presidental race. I too will be one of those sadly disappointed if she ends up with the nomination.
Little bird-I agree with you about Hillary beig a polarizing figure. I really hate listening to her when she speaks. It's like finger nails on a chalk board. It's too bad as a democrat I have to feel that way as I once admired her work.
If anyone is interested, I wrote an interesting piece about her on my blog (click on my name).
what about Richardson? He is arguably the most qualified, Congress, UN Ambassador, Secretary of Energy, and Governor. Also a Mexican American who speaks fluent Spanish. He is great on the campaign trail and the Hispanics, at least in CA have been mobilized by a huge voter registration campaign. And down here in CA, it looks like the tide might be turning for the Feb primary...and did I mention we are over 40 % Hispanic?
The Anglo last name won’t hurt him either. You poo-poo-ed me when I promoted him for a VP pick in 04...if Kerry had picked Richardson we might be in a different place today!
PS, happy birthday 2 weeks late
I do intend to follow up with the two other major candidates--Gore and Edwards--and then do a final piece on the dark horse candidates who, at the very least, could make things more interesting.
(Sorry Dennis, you ain't among 'em this time.)
Good analysis and like little bird and da english, I am singularly unexcited about Hillary's candidacy. In spite of acknowledging that her election would mean a return to competency, and that she would govern reasonably well, I think we desperately need a more exciting candidate, and a turning away from dynastic tendencies. She also too much of a corporatist for me. If now is a window for a candidate to win mostly with new internet money, and hence be less beholden to corporations, we better take advantage of it. I see Obama as definitely having that potential.
I also agree with Susan E that of all the other announced (or almost announced) candidates, Bill Richardson, in spite of his huge uphill climb in name recognition is the one whose candidacy could gain surprising momentum.
Walker
Choosing Hope
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