Wednesday, December 19, 2007

The Edwards Rally

I still don't see how John Edwards becomes president, but winning Iowa--he may indeed pull that off. Until December, Hillary was doing surprisingly well in Iowa, in one of those bizarre feedback loops you see in politics. She was killing everyone nationally, and it appeared that Iowans were going with the mo. But when Obama showed life this month, it broke loose the logjam Hillary had established. Iowans began giving Obama a second look. As he moved abreast of her in the polls, voters in the next two states, NH and SC, started to reconsider her inevitability--and Obama soared in those polls, too. This appears to have created a feedback loop back to Iowa, as Hawkeyes now consider that if Hillary is not inevitable, maybe they can consider voting for someone else. And so they're giving Edwards a second look:

What about Iowa? There are two metrics, one of which we don't have available: their hard count of confirmed caucus goers. The other is crowds.

Not only has Edwards been greeted by unusually large crowds for him, he is outdrawing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton head-to-head. In Des Moines Monday, Edwards drew 400 to Hillary Clinton's 200; in Mason City on Saturday night, Edwards drew 600 to Obama's roughly 300....

Democrats with access to the internal polling data of some of Edwards's presidential rivals say that he may be winning back male voters he lost to Barack Obama and is consolidating his strength with the union electorate in Iowa.
Edwards has some organizational advantages, too--he's spent years in rural Iowa. Hillary has all but forsaken rural Iowa, and Obama's presence there may be thin. If Hillary and Obama duel in the population centers while Edwards sweeps rural districts, look for an upset on January 3. Of course, that's grim news for Obamaniacs like me.

9 comments:

cwilcox said...

It is exciting here in Iowa. With the caucus less than two weeks away it seems the race is up for grabs. There are nearly 1000 precincts in Iowa. Every one of them is going to be important.

Chuck Butcher said...

The question I have for Obama folks is just exactly what is new? I don't mean the ability to give a good speech, I do mean new in policy or agenda.

Of the top 4 the only one who says something different is Edwards. Getting alone is not new, it is as old and tired as Hillary's triangulation. Get along with whom? The plutocrats in this country don't have any reason to care whether the Ds & Rs are nice to each other or not - as long as their agenda is kept intact.

Maybe I'm just too damn left to warm up to Obama.

Yes, I'd be much happier with Edwards it he said the magic words on health care - you know - single payer not for profit...

Jeff Alworth said...

Chuck, let me ask you Edwards folks this tough question: if Edwards is the liberal firebrand he's running as now, why did he govern to the center when he was actually in power? He has the least experience of any of the candidates, but the limited experience we can look at marks him as a moderate.

Obama, on the other hand, has governed pretty decently left both in Illinois and as a US Senator.

(As for single payer, any of the three will take it if it's there. A year ago, even suggesting that we could change anything was radical.)

And my Hog brother, I REALLY envy you--vote wisely!

cwilcox said...

Not to worry Jeff...I'm an Obama precinct captain.

Chuck Butcher said...

Actually Jeff I'm more convinced of this iteration than the previous one. I'm hoping that what I see is the result of learning.

My problem with Obama is that he seems to be thinking he can do things the way they are done now. I don't believe anything of consequence can be accomplished from that POV.

I would work my butt off for Barak if he won the nomination, I have no real "anti" position there.

Jeff Alworth said...

Organize those Obamaniacs well, my friend--the presidency may hang in the balance.

cwilcox said...

Hey Jeff,
Just stopping back to wish you a Merry Christmas!

Jeff Alworth said...

You too, man!

Chuck Butcher said...

I'e been an uncommitted in the Dem Primary up to this point, and I still am not working for anyone (I admit against HC). I am winnowing through, I don't believe at this point we've seen their 'faces' clearly. Obama has a ways to go to persuade me he's not 'business as usual.' Edwards has to persuade me he's a fighter. Richardson on down list have to show me they can compete.

I lean to Edwards, for now.