Edwards has some organizational advantages, too--he's spent years in rural Iowa. Hillary has all but forsaken rural Iowa, and Obama's presence there may be thin. If Hillary and Obama duel in the population centers while Edwards sweeps rural districts, look for an upset on January 3. Of course, that's grim news for Obamaniacs like me.
What about Iowa? There are two metrics, one of which we don't have available: their hard count of confirmed caucus goers. The other is crowds.
Not only has Edwards been greeted by unusually large crowds for him, he is outdrawing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton head-to-head. In Des Moines Monday, Edwards drew 400 to Hillary Clinton's 200; in Mason City on Saturday night, Edwards drew 600 to Obama's roughly 300....Democrats with access to the internal polling data of some of Edwards's presidential rivals say that he may be winning back male voters he lost to Barack Obama and is consolidating his strength with the union electorate in Iowa.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
The Edwards Rally
I still don't see how John Edwards becomes president, but winning Iowa--he may indeed pull that off. Until December, Hillary was doing surprisingly well in Iowa, in one of those bizarre feedback loops you see in politics. She was killing everyone nationally, and it appeared that Iowans were going with the mo. But when Obama showed life this month, it broke loose the logjam Hillary had established. Iowans began giving Obama a second look. As he moved abreast of her in the polls, voters in the next two states, NH and SC, started to reconsider her inevitability--and Obama soared in those polls, too. This appears to have created a feedback loop back to Iowa, as Hawkeyes now consider that if Hillary is not inevitable, maybe they can consider voting for someone else. And so they're giving Edwards a second look: