Tuesday, March 04, 2008

More Math

This is a great post. Jonathan Chait points out that Hillary needs to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates to tie Obama (Slate puts it at 58%). That means to stay on pace, she needs to emerge with a margin of 52 delegates from tonight's primaries. If she doesn't do that, she falls further behind and then will need to make up an even greater percentage in following primaries.

(And it seems highly unlikely--even to a pessimist like me--that she'll get that many. That would require 15-point margins across the board in TX, OH, and RI.)

Doesn't mean she doesn't continue to drag things out indefinitely, though...

No comments: