Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Undecideds Reconsidered

Whoops, all that business about how the undecideds will break to Hillary? No longer operational:

On the last round of polls, however, the pattern that I highlighted has disappeared. ...On the last round of surveys, two important things changed. SurveyUSA, still finding very few "undecided" voters, showed the Clinton margin narrowing significantly, while PPP added a follow-up question asking undecided voters how they lean. PPP continues to show Obama with a slight lead, only with a much smaller undecided percentage. So the pattern of dots in the chart is now more circular, and the relationship between the size of the undecided category and the Clinton margin has all but disappeared (something Poblano also noticed yesterday).

So who knows what will happen. Weather looks nice in Pennsylvania, though.

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