Thursday, July 31, 2008

Polls Not as Bad as They Look

Feeling a little anxious that Obama's in apparent freefall in the polls lately? I have been. Fortunately, Five Thirty Eight has our back:

But focusing on only the last month risks failing to see the forest for the trees. Fundamentally, the news is that Obama is ahead in all three states -- two of which are states that Democrats have made a habit of losing. Moreover, if you compare his performance not just to the most recent number, but to all other instances of the Quinnipiac polls -- this is how our model looks at things -- the results are pretty decent for him:
Month      FL       OH       PA
Feb M+2 M+2 O+1
March M+9 O+1 O+4
April M+1 M+1 O+9
May M+4 M+4 O+6
June O+4 O+6 O+12
July O+2 O+2 O+7
See, if you skip June and look at the trendlines going backward, Obama's actually continuing to make ground. Breathe, breathe...

No comments: