Sidebar Polls

For the final nine days before the election, I've put four poll trends in the right column. The first is the national trend line--that should be obvious enough. The next three are the three states with which Obama can win the election: Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. If Obama wins all the Kerry states, he only needs these three Bush '04 states to flip and he'll have 273 electoral college votes and the White House. (That assumes Obama carries all the Kerry states. At present, the closest flip for McCain is in New Hampshire, where he trails by a poll average of 6 points.) The last state is Georgia, my "canary-in-a-coal-mine" state. If Obama's trend line catches McCain's here, it will be landslide time. If he wins Georgia, he's got a shot at 400.

Obama is closer to McCain in Georgia than McCain is to Obama in IA, CO, or NM.

Currently:

US: +9.0%
IA: +11.5%
CO: +6.7%
NM: +6.5%
GA: -4.0%

Intensity of Support

One last note. In the last two elections, Republicans were more loyal to their candidate than Dems. Republicans averaged 92% loyalty in those elections, with Dems about five points behind. This year? John McCain is down 7% from Bush (85%) while Obama is up 1%. Observations:

1. 88% of 45% of the voting population (Dem registration) is greater than 85% of 35% (Republican registration).

2. What Hillary voters?

Economic Fears Double

Amid the dozens of new polls every week, it's hard to keep track of the details. I just looked through the results of Pew's new survey, and this finding jumped out. Pew asked voters to rate the most important national problem. For most of the year, the economy has been the leading issue, but have a look at how dramatically it's grown.

Voters citing "economy" as most important issue

34%: January
61%: July
75%: October

This is really astounding movement on a single issue. Iraq, by comparison, has slid from the main worry of 27% of respondents to just 11%. Obama is favored by 14 points over McCain in the ability to handle (47%-33%) the current financial crisis.

If these numbers stay the same (and based on the news, they will), it seems inconceivable that McCain could win.

Oh, and one other finding. In June they asked voters if the candidates were too critical of each other. They thought neither candidate was being too critical (19% for Obama, 26% for McCain). But in this survey, that's changed radically. Only 22% think Obama's too critical of McCain now, but 48% think McCain's too critical. Voters are also 2% worried about McCain's "character, age, and judgment" than Obama's.

The End of the Bounce

Today's polls confirm that poll findings during the past ten days have reflected a post-convention, post-Palin bounce. And now it's over.




In case the image isn't clear, Obama is now back up by two according to the Gallup daily tracker. I have no idea what will happen henceforth, but to take my victory lap, this is pretty much what I expected.

Update, 9/18: It's now at four, 48-44. Bonus findings: Palin's favorability is tanking.

McCain Falling

Today's Gallup Daily tracking poll, as I suspected, is showing a return to normalcy. After the convention bounce, McCain's numbers are now falling back to earth (even as his campaign descends into the gutter).



These numbers represent a three-day rolling average, from Wednesday through yesterday. In other words, they are likely rounding the effect of McCain's fall. It's not unreasonable to expect more of the same. And then we'll see where we stand.

(More good news: Nate Silver of 538 points out that the real metric shouldn't be the tracking polls anyway. It's all about the states, and it appears that the bounce, while real, wasn't proportionately spread. In many of the swing states, there was hardly any bounce at all--red states just got redder.)

Bouncing

"McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points."
--Gallup, 9/8/08

The polls mean very little this week. We'll check back next week to see how they're settling down post-conventions. In one week, we saw a swing of 17 points in this poll alone despite the absence of any news. That's pretty much the definition of a convention bounce. (Other polls have registered this same trend, though Gallup's has the widest swing.)

Darkness Falls

Okay, I'll admit it: I'm worried. This just isn't good:


It's a snapshot in time, admittedly, and those lines haven't quite touched yet, admittedly. And then there's this, which still bodes somewhat well:



But still.

Polls Not as Bad as They Look

Feeling a little anxious that Obama's in apparent freefall in the polls lately? I have been. Fortunately, Five Thirty Eight has our back:

But focusing on only the last month risks failing to see the forest for the trees. Fundamentally, the news is that Obama is ahead in all three states -- two of which are states that Democrats have made a habit of losing. Moreover, if you compare his performance not just to the most recent number, but to all other instances of the Quinnipiac polls -- this is how our model looks at things -- the results are pretty decent for him:

Month      FL       OH       PA
Feb        M+2      M+2      O+1
March      M+9      O+1      O+4
April      M+1      M+1      O+9
May        M+4      M+4      O+6
June       O+4      O+6      O+12
July       O+2      O+2      O+7

See, if you skip June and look at the trendlines going backward, Obama's actually continuing to make ground. Breathe, breathe...

Intensity Gap: 51% of GOP Dissatisfied with McCain

As a follow-up to the post below, Pew has a new poll out on intensity, which bolsters the case.

The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall -- perhaps much higher than in previous elections -- as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start of the campaign, Democrats enjoy a substantial engagement advantage over Republicans that may significantly alter the composition of the November electorate.

And what an advantage. Pew asked a series of questions to judge intensity, and Dems have a huge lead. In particular, one statistic absolutely leaps off the page. Less than half the Republicans are satisfied with their candidate (49%), as opposed to 77% of Dems. Have a look:

Given quite a lot of thought to the election:

_______2004_______2008
GOP_____61%________72%
Dems____59%________77%
Change__-2%________+5%


More interested than four years ago:

_______2004_______2008
GOP_____48%________51%
Dems____52%________71%
Change__+4%_______+20%


Following election news closely:

_______2004_______2008
GOP_____34%________44%
Dems____33%________55%
Change__-1%_______+11%


Satisfied with candidate:

_______2004_______2008
GOP_____75%________49%
Dems____63%________74%
Change_-12%_______+25%


Really matters who wins:

_______2004_______2008
GOP_____72%________62%
Dems____67%________70%
Change__-5%________+8%

Fascinating stuff....

GOP Fatigue

Sometimes all you need to do is show a graph. Pew, in a poll taken June 27-30, found that just 28% of Republicans were following the news of the campaign "closely." Fifty-two percent of Dems were following it closely. Americans are tired of Republicans and Republicans are apparently tired of the campaign.



Oh yeah, McCain's really gonna make this one close.

Super Tuesday Poll

more at twiigs.com...

Cell Phones and Polling

I know that for the most part, no one who (ever read, never mind still) reads this blog cares about polling, but there's a very important post at pollster.com (formerly Mystery Pollster) on the effect of polling in the cell phone era. It's massively long and scholarly, but nevertheless very clear to a layperson.

You should read the whole thing, but here are a couple of the more interesting facts:

• For the most part, pollsters don't call people on cell phones.
  
• By the time the election rolls around in '08, fully 25% of Americans will only use a cell phone (up from 7% in '04).
• Even this figure may be understated, as many of the people (like me, for example) who have a landline use it almost exclusively for DSL.
• The people most likely to have a cell phone only are young people, people living in group housing, and poor people.
  
• So far, the differences are shaking out so that the effects within age groups are not substantially different between cell/landline users (<2%),

As the cell-phone-only group grows, these subtle differences may become exaggerated. Or, possibly the cell-phone-only group will start to become the normative sample and even more closely resemble landline users. For now, not such a big deal, but worth revisiting in '09.

Pew: Bush at 29%

Polling isn't about the numbers, it's about the methodology. Anyway, it is if you want to know what a population actually thinks. The gold standard for assiduous methodology is Pew, which tends to have numbers that don't make the news--they're not sexy outliers produced by talking to too few people or the wrong people (as Gallup's, famously, are). So it was a shocker to see that when they polled 1500 people from May 31-June 3, they found that Bush was at 29%.

For the first time in Pew Research Center polling, disapproval of President Bush's job performance outnumbers approval by more than two-to-one (61% disapprove, 29% approve). Bush's job approval is down six points from April, and is three points below the previous low measured in November and December of 2006.

This is the first credible poll I've seen where Bush has fallen into the twenties. I didn't think it would ever actually happen--his base is so loyal, and apparently a pretty stable third of the electorate, that I thought he'd avoid a Carter-like plunge late in his term.

So what gives? Immigration. His unshakeable base has finally been shaken, and now they're starting to fall away. Among Republicans, Bush is down 12% among self-identified conseratives and Republicans since April. Even more eyebrow-raising (and a good signal for Dems) is this:

White evangelical Protestants have been one of the groups consistently backing George W. Bush throughout his presidency. In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, when the president's overall job approval spiked to 86% nationwide it was as high as 95% among white evangelicals. As recently as December 2004, more than three-quarters of white evangelicals gave the president a positive performance review. But the current survey finds just 44% of white evangelicals expressing approval of the president's job performance; roughly the same number (46%) say they disapprove.

The poll also asked about current candidates, and I'm happy to report that Obama's rising among Dems--closing in on a dead heat with Hillary. Pew asks the question sort of oddly: "Is there a good chance, some chance, or no chance you would vote for [candidate]." Hillary is at 44%, Obama 40%.

More promisingly, Obama's crosstabs are looking up: he's in a dead heat among women (59%), is catching up among older voters and the poor (where Hillary had been killing him). He's now pulled ahead among black and religious voters. The trouble area is among less-educated voters, where he trails by 20 points. Still, these are improvements over his numbers a month ago.

John McCain is Old

The Gallup poll making the rounds has highlighted the resistance Americans have to Mormons (24% said they wouldn't vote for one). But even more unelectable are men thrice-married (30% oppose) or 72 years old (42% oppose), as are Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, respectively. In fact, only gays and athiests are more objectionable than old men.

Of course, those are generic numbers, and people are probably more positive about McCain than they are worried about his age. Still, it demonstrates the problem he confronts. Below is a handy Table of the Objectionable and the corresponding candidate who fits the slot.

Category________No Worries___Worries___Candidate
Catholic____________95%________4% _______NA
Black_______________94%________5% _______Obama
Woman______________ 88%________11% ______Hillary
Hispanic___________ 87%________12% ______Richardson
Mormon_____________ 72%________24% ______Romney
Married 3x_________ 67%________30% ______Giuliani
72 years old_______ 57%________42% ______McCain

I also wonder whether people are more likely to tell the truth about their worries about age (no social stigma) than race (a big one). In any case, interesting.

Soldiers: Iraq Was a Mistake

Somehow this news didn't make it into the Fox news cycle (or anywhere else for that matter): a December poll of active-service US soldiers found that 59% thought the Iraq war was a mistake.

Barely one in three service members approve of the way the president is handling the war, according to the new poll for the four papers (Army Times, Navy Times, Air Force Times and Marine Times). ... And the number who feel success there is likely has shrunk from 83% in 2004 to about 50% today.

The annual mail survey was conducted Nov. 13 through Dec. 22. Among the respondents, two in three have deployed at least once to Iraq or Afghanistan.

Other findings:

• Three quarters think the military is spread too thin to be effective;
• Only 47% believe the Iraq war is a part of the war on terror.

Fascinating, but it appears no one is listening.