Wednesday, February 10, 2016

New Hampshire

I think the NH results speak for themselves, but in the interest of completism, my brief thoughts.

Dems. Bernie has always had a very narrow path to the nomination. It requires him to win big where he can, rack up delegates, and start to poach party support (and super delegates) from Hillary. He far out-performed polls in NH, so his path is a little wider this morning. Big, big win. We'll learn a lot about this campaign after Nevada and South Carolina.

GOP. The big question with Trump was whether his poll numbers were inflated by non-voters who wouldn't bother to cast a ballot. As one data point, New Hampshire's speaking pretty loudly. He out-performed the polls, which suggests his national numbers may be real. (He may continue to under-perform in caucus states.)

The worst news for Republicans is that voters aren't settling on a non-Trump candidate. Kasich is now in the mix, along with--amazingly--Bush. Cruz remains viable. It means Trump can continue to win states and rack up delegates while getting only 35-40% of the vote. I don't think anyone is taking Trump's chances lightly any more.

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