Don't Fear Bernie

Pew has a detailed survey out from a sample of 12,000+ voters. A lot of the details will seem counterintuitive and surprise many—and they show why Bernie may have hidden strengths and Biden hidden weaknesses.

The topline is consistent with other polls: Biden 26%, Bernie 21%, Warren 16%, Buttigieg 7%. Where it gets interesting is the breakdown of support. Self-described liberals prefer Bernie (28%) and Warren (26%) over Biden (21%), but not by much. Biden leads among conservatives (30%), but Bernie is the second choice at 15%.

Bernie also does well among less-educated voters, getting 45% of the vote from those with some college or less education. Biden does better among that cohort (55%), but not hugely so (Warren, by contrast, gets just 21%). Finally, white voters are about equally divided among Biden (24%), Bernie (21%), and Warren (19%).

Biden is supposed to be the guy who can attract all those white working-class voters in the upper Midwest who switched to Trump, but many are either choosing Bernie or remain undecided. 23% of conserve/mod voters are still undecided, as are 46% of those with lower education levels. (I’ve collapsed two categories, so they total 200% rather than 100%.)

This points to a conundrum no one has really solved: what does “conservative” mean to voters? Many in politics and the media assume it relates to policy orientation. Conservatives prefer religiously restrictive social mores and pro-business policies (low taxes, low regulation, small government, and free trade). But the voting segment everyone’s focused on—rural, low-education, working-class whites—favor Trump (conservative), Biden (center left), and Bernie (socialist). They are highly resistant to urbane, educated candidates, whatever their politics.

“Conservative,” in modern American politics has come to mean “white identity politics.” Its fixtures, which superficially appear to be based on policy positions, are actually part of white tribalism: religious conservatism, which is the heart of cultural whiteness, and anti-government views that stem from resentment over “giveaways” to nonwhites. All coalitions contain multitudes, so of course not *everyone* holds these orientation; individuals themselves contain multitudes, and so people may have both views of white identity and more universalist views. We can believe contradictory things simultaneously.

All of which brings us back to Bernie. He’s a white politician who has spent a career speaking to rural whites. For whites looking for someone who speaks to their identity, Bernie is a plausible candidate. He looks and talks in ways that makes sense.

He is currently less convincing to this group than Biden, but he has some strengths Biden lacks. Bernie isn’t as strong among Black voters as Biden, but he’s more popular among other non-white voters. And he’s way more popular among voters under 50 years old. Three-quarters of Biden’s support are older than 50, and 39% older than 65. Sixty-five percent of Bernie’s support is younger than 50. In recent years, young voters have outnumbered older ones, so this is a significant finding.

Biden is clearly the strongest candidate among conservative, rural whites, but Bernie has lots of strength there and is counterintuitively their second choice. Bernie, of course, is more likely to rebuild the Obama coalition than Biden—which is so much more important to the outcome. If he wins Iowa and NH, Biden’s slim lead may evaporate. If Black voters abandon Biden, they’ll move to Bernie, who has made himself an acceptable second choice.

I’m still a strong Warren supporter, but she has a lot of difficulties. Her strength is among educated, urban whites. That’s a weak hand. If she doesn’t win IA or NH, it’s hard to see how she builds a coalition going forward. As Bernie gets more popular and Warren falls off, there is increasing panic among moderate Dems that Bernie will win the nomination and get killed by Trump. But the data just don’t support that view. Bernie is going to be strong among gettable rural whites, and he’ll be far more likely to spark the enthusiasm that elevated Obama than Biden will.

tl;dr version: don’t fear Bernie.