Revised Predictions

About two weeks ago, I made a few predictions. Rarely is one so quickly proven wrong/right. Let us revisit an revise.

Prediction 9/18

Obama will win the election by a comfortable popular vote (+5%), and an even more comfortable electoral college outcome. Current guess (to be revised later): 294-244. This includes a sweep of the Western swing states, Virginia, and Iowa, but neither FL or OH.

Revised Prediction
It's best to be safe than sorry, so this is probably worth standing pat on. But man, Obama's charging in BOTH Florida and Ohio and the electoral college outcome could be as much as 359-179.



Prediction 9/18

If he wins North Carolina, he will win in a landslide (upper limit, 340-198).

Revised Prediction
Look out.



Prediction 9/18

There's no way in hell Obama loses Michigan--I don't care what the polls say.

Revised Prediction
There's no way in hell Obama loses Michigan--just look at the polls. Plus, McCain's pulling out of the Great Lakes State.



Prediction 9/18

Obama will scrap hard in Florida to keep McCain honest, but it's pure defense--Florida's not in the cards.

Revised Prediction
Florida is very much in the cards, thanks to the economic trouble and Sarah Palin. Good thing Obama scrapped there, eh?



Prediction 9/18

Palin was the moment McCain lost the election, a view that will solidify within days following the election. History will record it as a massive gaffe. It will probably destroy Palin's future as a serious national player.

Revised Prediction
No revision.



Prediction 9/18

Dems will control the Senate 56-44 (no filibuster-proof majority) before dropping Lieberman like a sack of dirt, retaining a ten-vote majority.

Revised Prediction
No revision.

My, what a difference a fortnight makes.