Told You So, Part 2

As I was grading myself on the quiz (I scored it first to reduce the chance that I'd cheat and bend the answers to my own, knowing that there wasn't a McCain's chance in Pennsylvania that I would recall answers given 18 months ago), I discovered this answer to the last question.

17. The unexpected development(s) in the next 18 months will be? (open ended)

17-Despite my prediction that Hillary will win it all, I counterintuitively also predict that Barack Obama excites heretofore abandoned constituencies of the youth, religiously liberal, and nonpartisan progressive to create a JFK-style, feel-good campaign that sweeps him into office and precipitates a wholesale realignment of traditional political coalitions (dooming the GOP to a generation in the wilderness).

It is authenticate in the comments on the original post. Yes we can, yes we can, yes we can!

(I did not correctly identify Sarah Palin.)

Told You So

This is from April. Some of the details are wrong, but the overall point was spot-on. And don't give me that financial crisis crap. McCain just wasn't going to win this thing. Obama's margin would have been something in the 285-315 range instead of the landslide. But he was going to win. As I noted in April, the "fundamentals" of the McCain campaign were just too crappy to overcome. My rationale then:

• The economy. Key comment (long before the collapse): "Add the 20% who cite health care and gas prices as the paramount issues, and you have 57% of the public worried about pocketbook issues.... McCain has said he doesn't understand or care about the economy. That ignorance will be fatal."
• Women. Key comment (long before Sarah Palin): "The issues this year are economic, not security, and the evangelical coalition is weakening, leaving women without a compelling reason to cross over from their natural allegiance."
• Democratic demographic shift. " In Missouri, a whopping 235,000 more turned out to vote Democratic than Republican--and that's in a state that voted for Bush by a 7-point margin."
• Splintering coalitions (even before the rush of GOP Obama-endorsers). "McCain has never been appealing to evangelicals, and his John Hagee debacle demonstrates how out of touch with this constituency he is. He may still win a majority of these votes, but in a year not animated by social issues, they won't be his free labor source and far fewer will show up to vote."
• McCain's faults. "In a year of change, a dinosaur is not the horse the GOP should be riding. His tendency toward anger, should it flare up in the debates again, will exacerbate fears about his age."
• The 45% barrier. McCain enjoyed polls that exceeded this barrier twice: the first, just following his victory in the primaries, when Obama was locked in the death battle with Hillary, and briefly following his selection of Palin and the GOP convention. After an ABC/Post poll put him at 46% at the end of September, he only broke 45% three times (all registering 46%) in the well over 100 polls Pollster logged until the end of the election. I wrote: "These are McCain's salad days, before America hears about the scandals, starts thinking about his age, watches him melt down in debates, and sees constant attacks from the right and left. If he can't break 45% now, when exactly is he going to?"

I concluded that post thusly: "McCain is this year's Bob Dole, a loyal soldier the GOP have honored by nominating as their candidate. And he will surely suffer Dole's fate in November."

You may now congratulate me for me keen foresight.

Revised Predictions

About two weeks ago, I made a few predictions. Rarely is one so quickly proven wrong/right. Let us revisit an revise.

Prediction 9/18

Obama will win the election by a comfortable popular vote (+5%), and an even more comfortable electoral college outcome. Current guess (to be revised later): 294-244. This includes a sweep of the Western swing states, Virginia, and Iowa, but neither FL or OH.

Revised Prediction
It's best to be safe than sorry, so this is probably worth standing pat on. But man, Obama's charging in BOTH Florida and Ohio and the electoral college outcome could be as much as 359-179.



Prediction 9/18

If he wins North Carolina, he will win in a landslide (upper limit, 340-198).

Revised Prediction
Look out.



Prediction 9/18

There's no way in hell Obama loses Michigan--I don't care what the polls say.

Revised Prediction
There's no way in hell Obama loses Michigan--just look at the polls. Plus, McCain's pulling out of the Great Lakes State.



Prediction 9/18

Obama will scrap hard in Florida to keep McCain honest, but it's pure defense--Florida's not in the cards.

Revised Prediction
Florida is very much in the cards, thanks to the economic trouble and Sarah Palin. Good thing Obama scrapped there, eh?



Prediction 9/18

Palin was the moment McCain lost the election, a view that will solidify within days following the election. History will record it as a massive gaffe. It will probably destroy Palin's future as a serious national player.

Revised Prediction
No revision.



Prediction 9/18

Dems will control the Senate 56-44 (no filibuster-proof majority) before dropping Lieberman like a sack of dirt, retaining a ten-vote majority.

Revised Prediction
No revision.

My, what a difference a fortnight makes.

Debates

McCain must not be much of a chess man. Somehow he didn't see very few moves ahead. I guess he hoped Obama would suspend his own campaign and agree to skip the debate. But failing that, McCain's plan was ... ?

He now finds himself in an extremely awkward position. It looks like the bailout, for good or ill (ill, if you want my opinion) is going forward. It looks like there's very little chance the current agreement will pass by the time the debate is due to start tomorrow. This leaves McCain few choices. The best (read: least catastrophic) is to declare that the crisis has ended and go to the debate. This is still bad, because it makes his "suspending my campaign" gesture look rash and unbalanced, further evidence that he doesn't have a good sense of magnitude.

But consider the other choices. If he doesn't declare victory on the bailout and yet still shows up at the debate, it will raise far more serious questions about his gesture--effectively making the "country first" theme a self-parody. If he just blows it off, that's nearly as bad, because it now appears Obama will have an hour of face time with 40 million Americans. Word on the street is that Obama may even do a town hall, further salting McCain's self-inflicted wounds.

It's hard to see any way in which this doesn't almost certainly destroy McCain's already vanishing chances of winning the election.

On the Veep debate, I am now about to make a very bold prediction: it won't happen. Seeing Palin self destruct with Katie Couric, it's evident that she can't be trusted to spend an hour blathering ignorance in front of half the country. She is seriously, dangerously ignorant about national domestic policy as well as foreign policy. In the contest between two very bad choices--letting her debate or suffering the blowback from canceling--the safer bet is canceling. That's how bad she is.