Random Election Item #2

Rudy is really in freefall. As recently as last Tuesday, I thought a Huckabee win in Iowa would give Rudy enough of a boost to keep his "Florida first" scheme afloat. Or maybe not:

A new Strategic Vision (R) statewide survey of likely primary voters in Florida (conducted 12/14 through 12/16) finds [that among] likely Republican primary voters, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani runs slightly ahead of former Gov. Mike Huckabee (25% to 21%) in a statewide primary.

Two new SurveyUSA automated survesy of likely voters in Florida finds [that among] Among 431 likely Republican voters in Florida asked to choose between five candidates, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani narrowly leads former Gov. Mike Huckabee (29% to 24%) in a statewide primary.

It becomes difficulter and difficulter to imagine a victory scenario for the Rudester.

Random Election Item #1

The USA Today, that emblem of journalistic independence, has a candidate-selector quiz. Of course, Kucinich came up top on my list, or would have, had I not answered the idiotic 11th question (asking what experience I think is most valuable--I selected "senator," vaulting my man Obama into first). But what I found interesting were the distribution of questions: three on Iraq, two on immigration, and one each on gay marriage and taxes (the tax question being a series of Republican proposals). Just two questions on health care, none on the economy, and one on global warming.

Pinheads.

Candidates' Net Worth: $385.2 million

You know Mitt Romney is the richest candidate running for president. But did you know that Hillary Clinton has a net worth of $34.9 million? Who says public service doesn't pay? Have a look at a CNN report out this week (apparently the story was started before Huckabee became a serious contender):

Democrats' Net Worth - $90.6 million
$54.4 million - John Edwards ($44m in cash and stock)
$34.9 million - Hillary Clinton ($30m in cash and bonds)
$1.3 million - Barack Obama ($250,000 in cash)

Republicans Net Worth - $294.6 million
$202 million - Mitt Romney ($19m in cash.
$52.2 million - Rudy Giuliani ($21m in cash and stock)
$40.4 million - John McCain ($2.1m in cash)

Clearly, only Obama is by any stretch a middle class candidate. And he may legitimately be called one. Most of his wealth comes from his $1.9m home. Since we now have something like $400k in real estate, thanks to a crazy housing market, I don't regard this as signs of blue blood. (We bought our first house in '99 with 3% down--or about $6,000, including closing costs--and everything since then has been appreciation. You didn't have to be a financial wizard to make money in the early '00s.) Obama's also in the hole $1.3 million, probably due to mortgages and student loans. All of that looks pretty familiar to the average American.

Remind me: why is Hillary so much the friend of the little guy? Why is Obama the candidate of the Democratic elite?

Romney, Religion, and the Moral Lessons of Superbad

A rare crosspost from BlueOregon. Mainly for the archives.

On this day when Mitt Romney gave a speech about Mormonism and the country pauses collectively to consider the larger question of the role of religion in politics, my mind turns to lessons I learned this weekend watching Superbad. For those of you who missed this important artistic treatise, a thumbnail recap: two teenage boys about to graduate from high school try to use the sentimentality provoked during the waning days of senior year as a platform from which to score chicks. It is among the most profane films ever made (I'm waiting for a masters thesis on how it outscores Pulp Fiction in profanities-per-minute), jejune, and cringe-producingly honest. It is also beautifully humane, and yet another retort from Judd Apatow to the Jerry Falwell moralism that has dominated the US for 20 years.

The most potent example of the Apatow oeuvre comes from an outtake that didn't make it into The 40 Year Old Virgin. In a cameo, Apatow himself plays a father who comes to shop at a big-box electronics store for his two-year-old daughter, whom he holds in his arms (played by his real-life daughter). The store is the setting for the movie, and one of the main characters haplessly tries to sell him a high-tech robot even as Apatow protests that robots scare his daughter. Predictably, she begins to cry--causing her father to (unpredictably) roar back a sting of profanity so blue it would embarrass a Marine. He clutches her tenderly all the while. Given the cultural mores of our time, this comes off as shockingly transgressive (no wonder it got cut). What offends is not the behavior--a non-English speaker watching would remain nonplussed--but the profanity. In front of a two-year-old--for shame! Hold that thought.

The Republican Party has become the party of a certain God--the two so fused that it becomes a crisis when a Mormon runs (wrong God) while wholly unremarkable that a front-runner is a parson. Romney's candidacy is viable, perversely, because our current cultural and religious context favors deeply conservative expressions of faith and family. Romney runs as an overtly religious candidacy ("it is important to recognize that while differences in theology exist between the churches in America, we share a common creed of moral convictions")--promising to solidify not only the values, but even the status of the dominant faith, to which he does not subscribe. This is bizarre, but also a metaphor for the type of socio-religious expectations the country now holds.

Continued at BlueOregon.

Puddle Blogging

The early reviews are in (okay, review actually). After just 35 pages, Chuck Butcher has seen enough to call it "well drawn"

I can already tell you that there is an economy of styling and language and the protagonist is well drawn and developing over time without the irritation of the author doing all the work and leaving me just reading words.

True enough--as an author, I have always been exceptional about not doing all the work. (Some have said I don't do any at all, but that's a post for another time.) Will Chuck like the book at page 135 or 264 (the final page)? No time to wait for those judgments--when good reviews are to be had, I'm taking them.

It provides the additional opportunity to flog the novel--something other bloggers do relentlessly when they put out a book. True, those are generally related to politics, but this is no time for quibbling. You've heard it from a reliable source, so now you know what to do: go buy this well drawn novel.

It takes roughly 7-10 days from the time you order for it to arrive, so there's still plenty of time to order 37 copies and have done with all your holiday shopping. Or, you know, one. Whatever. Just don't delay--order your copy now, while supplies last!!!*

Just to further entice, I'll include an excerpt in the comments--I'll select a particularly fine example of me doing not doing all the work.

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*Damn print-on-demand, robbing me of a legitimate sales hook.

Bush on the NIE (or Pathology of a President)

Bush serves up a rare naked lunch: in today's press conference, he quite baldly offered two amazing bits of reasoning related to the Iran-ain't-got-no-stinkin'-nukes National Intelligence Estimate. I summarize.

One

Q: So it turns out Iran has no nukes. The attack's out, right?

A: The NIE proves that Iran is extremely dangerous and we'll probably have to attack, just as I have always said and believed.*

Two

Q: There's no nukes, but you warned darkly of WWIII. What the hell?

A: I didn't hear about it until last week.

Q: So while you were warning of WWIII, no one from intelligence mentioned that Iran was no danger?

A: Yup. And anyway, this NIE doesn't change anything; Iran is still trying to enrich uranium and bomb soccer moms on their way to pick up groceries.**

A couple things bear mentioning. Bush could not have more clearly described his mental pathology had he been Sigmund Freud. One has belief, which is real, and facts, which must serve the reality of belief. Iran is dangerous because he believes it is; whether they have nukes is wholly beside the point. This has not been in dispute since mid-2003, but rarely have we had such a clear view of it.

Speaking of 2003, the second point is this: Bush's madness is abetted by those who pretend it's not madness. Chief among the enablers are the members of the press corps, who seem to write around the strange insanity of the most powerful man on the planet. It will be interesting to see whether they report this as dire evidence that our president is disconnected from reality, or the usual Bush-said, facts-say formulation.

____________________
*Actual exchange:

Q: Mr. President, a new intelligence report says that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program four years ago, and that it remains frozen. Are you still convinced that Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb? And do the new findings take the military option that you've talked about off the table?

A: Here's what we know. We know that they're still trying to learn how to enrich uranium. We know that enriching uranium is an important step in a country who wants to develop a weapon. We know they had a program.... And so I view this report as a warning signal that they had the program, they halted the program. And the reason why it's a warning signal is that they could restart it. And the thing that would make a restarted program effective and dangerous is the ability to enrich uranium, the knowledge of which could be passed on to a hidden program.

**Actual exchange:

Q: On October 17th, you warned about the prospect of World War III, when months before you made that statement, this intelligence about them suspending their weapons program back in '03 had already come to light to this administration. So can't you be accused of hyping this threat?

A: In August, I think it was Mike McConnell came in and said, we have some new information. He didn't tell me what the information was; he did tell me it was going to take a while to analyze. Why would you take time to analyze new information? One, you want to make sure it's not disinformation. You want to make sure the piece of intelligence you have is real. And secondly, they want to make sure they understand the intelligence they gathered: If they think it's real, then what does it mean? And it wasn't until last week that I was briefed on the NIE that is now public.

Q: Mr. President, thank you. Just to follow, I understand what you're saying about when you were informed about the NIE. Are you saying at no point while the rhetoric was escalating, as "World War III" was making it into conversation, at no point nobody from your intelligence team or your administration was saying, maybe you want to back it down a little bit?

A: No, nobody ever told me that. Having said -- having laid that out, I still feel strongly that Iran is a danger. Nothing has changed in this NIE that says, okay, why don't we just stop worrying about it. Quite the contrary. I think the NIE makes it clear that Iran needs to be taken seriously as a threat to peace. My opinion hasn't changed.

Now, the Iranians -- the most difficult aspect of developing a weapons program, or as some would say, the long pole in the tent, is enriching uranium. This is a nation -- Iran is a nation that is testing ballistic missiles. And it is a nation that is trying to enrich uranium.

The Catastrophe of Hillary

Okay, as much I keep thinking I'll be able to talk myself into accepting Hillary, she goes and does something so petty and bizarre that I am reminded why I never voted for Bill. From a current press release, she accuses Barack Obama of lying about wanting to be president because in Kindergarten and again in third grade he wrote essays saying he'd like to be president. No shit:

In third grade, Senator Obama wrote an essay titled 'I Want To Be a President.' His third grade teacher: Fermina Katarina Sinaga "asked her class to write an essay titled 'My dream: What I want to be in the future.' Senator Obama wrote 'I want to be a President,' she said." [The Los Angeles Times, 3/15/07]

In kindergarten, Senator Obama wrote an essay titled 'I Want to Become President.' "Iis Darmawan, 63, Senator Obama's kindergarten teacher, remembers him as an exceptionally tall and curly haired child who quickly picked up the local language and had sharp math skills. He wrote an essay titled, 'I Want To Become President,' the teacher said." [AP, 1/25/07 ]

This is the kind of politics that takes a slight electoral advantage and turns it into a monumental electoral backlash. Bill was the king of this kind of stuff, and during his eight years, the Democratic Party was reduced to rubble. Hillary will be a catastrophe. And yes, I think she's still going to win.